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Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Tunisia: Micro-Simulation in a General Equilibrium Framework

Author

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  • Mohamed Abdelbasset Chemingui

    () (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Trade, Finances and Economic Development Division)

  • Chokri Thabet

Abstract

This study tries to answer the following questions: Will exposure to world agricultural prices raise or lower poverty? To what extent will households be affected by changes in agricultural trade polices? Do multilateral agricultural liberalization policies matter more than bilateral changes? Results of simulations using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model linked to household survey data suggest that trade liberalization has only modest effects on the level of GDP, but it has a substantial effect on reducing poverty. Moreover, the combined effects of global and domestic liberalization are more pro-poor than the effect of domestic liberalization alone. As a net importer of agricultural commodities, Tunisia may experience terms-of-trade losses from higher world agricultural prices. However, given Tunisia’s significant agricultural import protection policies, it is expected that the agricultural sector will incur losses from trade liberalization that removes this protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Abdelbasset Chemingui & Chokri Thabet, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Tunisia: Micro-Simulation in a General Equilibrium Framework," Working Papers 402, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:402
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bourguignon, Francois & de Melo, Jaime & Morrisson, Christian, 1991. "Poverty and income distribution during adjustment: Issues and evidence from the OECD project," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1485-1508, November.
    2. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-549, August.
    3. J. David Richardson, 1995. "Income Inequality and Trade: How to Think, What to Conclude," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 33-55, Summer.
    4. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1984. "Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility : Calculations and policy implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-75.
    5. Decaluwé, Bernard & Dumont, Jean-Christophe & Savard, Luc, 2000. "Measuring Poverty and Inequality in a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 9926, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
    6. Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
    7. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Cockburn, John, 2007. "Trade reform and poverty--Lessons from the Philippines: A CGE-microsimulation analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 141-163.
    8. Nabil Annabi & Fatou Cissé & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," Working Papers 2005-07, CEPII research center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hielke Buddelmeyer & Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb & Mark van Zijll de Jong, 2012. "Linking a Microsimulation Model to a Dynamic CGE Model: Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Income Distribution in Australia," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(2), pages 40-58.
    2. Nicolas Hérault, 2009. "Sequential Linking of Computable General Equilibrium and Microsimulation Models," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

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