Sensitivity of Simulation Results to Competing SAM Updates
Recently there has been a renewed research interest in the properties of non survey updates of input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). Along with the venerable and well known scaling RAS method, several alternative new procedures related to entropy minimization and other metrics have been suggested, tested and used in the literature. Whether these procedures will eventually substitute or merely complement the RAS approach is still an open question without a definite answer. The performance of many of the updating procedures has been tested using some kind of proximity or closeness measure to a reference input-output table or SAM. The first goal of this paper, in contrast, is the proposal of checking the operational performance of updating mechanisms by way of comparing the simulation results that ensue from adopting alternative databases for calibration of a reference applied general equilibrium model. The second goal is to introduce a new updatin! g procedure based on information retrieval principles. This new procedure is then compared as far as performance is concerned to two well-known updating approaches: RAS and cross-entropy. The rationale for the suggested cross validation is that the driving force for having more up to date databases is to be able to conduct more current, and hopefully more credible, policy analyses.
|Date of creation:||15 Dec 2002|
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National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ball85-1.
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- Kehoe, Timothy J. & Whalley, John, 1985. "Uniqueness of equilibrium in large-scale numerical general equilibrium models," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 247-254, November.
- Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea & El-Said, Moataz, 2000.
"Updating and estimating a Social Accounting Matrix using cross entropy methods,"
TMD discussion papers
58, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-49, August.
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