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Inflation rates; long-memoray, level shifts, or both?

Author

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  • Hyung, N.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

We examine if US inflation rates series can be characterized by a long-memory model, by a model with occasional level shifts or by a new model, which jointly captures the two features. Through simulations we show that this new model can be usefully applied in practice. For 23 inflation rate series we find that generally the long-memory model is best, both in terms of in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyung, N. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2002. "Inflation rates; long-memoray, level shifts, or both?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:579
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    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/579/feweco20020501092243.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms & Charles S. Bos, 1999. "Long memory and level shifts: Re-analyzing inflation rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 427-449.
    2. Robert F. Engle & Aaron D. Smith, 1999. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 553-574, November.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2014. "Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(2), pages 1-30, June.
    2. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Marcel Scharth, 2009. "Realized Volatility Risk," CARF F-Series CARF-F-197, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Jan 2010.
    3. Scharth, Marcel & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2009. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in the volatility of Dow Jones stocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 304-327.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Level shifts; Long memory;

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