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Bayesian Population Dynamics of Spreading Species

  • arnaud dragicevic

    ()

    (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)

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    The invasion of native species by exotic species is one of the most serious threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Despite a number of empirical and theoretical studies, there is still no general model about why or when settlement becomes invasion. The purpose of this work is to test a model of Bayesian population dynamics relying on best-response strategies that could help in resource management and bioeconomic modeling. Given the exotic species survival probability, our static game unveils a breaking-level probability in mixed-strategies, where it is in the interest of exotic species to invade and in the interest of native species to resist. In dynamic setting, we introduce a stochastic version of the balance equation based on conditional probabilities. When the exotic species survival probability and the availability of resources in the ecosystem are respectively high and low, the dynamics shows that the convergence of subpopulations toward steady-states operates at a high pace.

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    File URL: http://www.u-cergy.fr/thema/repec/2012-30.pdf
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    Paper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2012-30.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2012-30
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    1. Marten, Alex L. & Moore, Christopher C., 2011. "An options based bioeconomic model for biological and chemical control of invasive species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2050-2061, September.
    2. Fudenberg, Drew & Ellison, Glenn, 1995. "Word-of-Mouth Communication and Social Learning," Scholarly Articles 3196300, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Lars J. Olson & Santanu Roy, 2002. "The Economics of Controlling a Stochastic Biological Invasion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1311-1316.
    4. Rohan Jayasuriya & Randall Jones & Remy Ven, 2011. "A bioeconomic model for determining the optimal response strategies for a new weed incursion," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 45-72, April.
    5. Born, Wanda & Rauschmayer, Felix & Brauer, Ingo, 2005. "Economic evaluation of biological invasions--a survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 321-336, November.
    6. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Shogren, Jason F., 2005. "Managing exotic pests under uncertainty: optimal control actions and bioeconomic investigations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 327-339, February.
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