Bayesian Population Dynamics of Spreading Species
The invasion of native species by exotic species is one of the most serious threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Despite a number of empirical and theoretical studies, there is still no general model about why or when settlement becomes invasion. The purpose of this work is to test a model of Bayesian population dynamics relying on best-response strategies that could help in resource management and bioeconomic modeling. Given the exotic species survival probability, our static game unveils a breaking-level probability in mixed-strategies, where it is in the interest of exotic species to invade and in the interest of native species to resist. In dynamic setting, we introduce a stochastic version of the balance equation based on conditional probabilities. When the exotic species survival probability and the availability of resources in the ecosystem are respectively high and low, the dynamics shows that the convergence of subpopulations toward steady-states operates at a high pace.
|Date of creation:||2012|
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- Glenn Ellison & Drew Fudenberg, 1995.
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- Lars J. Olson & Santanu Roy, 2002. "The Economics of Controlling a Stochastic Biological Invasion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1311-1316.
- repec:eee:ecomod:v:201:y:2007:i:2:p:127-143 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rohan Jayasuriya & Randall Jones & Remy Ven, 2011. "A bioeconomic model for determining the optimal response strategies for a new weed incursion," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 45-72, April.
- Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Shogren, Jason F., 2005. "Managing exotic pests under uncertainty: optimal control actions and bioeconomic investigations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 327-339, February. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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