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Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

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  • Abadie, Luis María
  • Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel

Abstract

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Abadie, Luis María & Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel, 2008. "Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto," IKERLANAK 6508, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehu:ikerla:6508
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    1. Kotowicz, Janusz & Michalski, Sebastian, 2015. "Influence of four-end HTM (high temperature membrane) parameters on the thermodynamic and economic characteristics of a supercritical power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 662-673.
    2. Huiyue Diao & Majid Ghorbani, 2018. "Production risk caused by human factors: a multiple case study of thermal power plants," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Capitán Herráiz, Álvaro & Rodríguez Monroy, Carlos, 2012. "Evaluation of the trading development in the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 973-984.
    4. Chamorro, José M. & Abadie, Luis M. & de Neufville, Richard & Ilić, Marija, 2012. "Market-based valuation of transmission network expansion. A heuristic application in GB," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 302-320.
    5. Charalampous, Georgios & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Risk Management and Portfolio Optimization for Gas- and Coal-fired Power Plants in Germany: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," FCN Working Papers 23/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    6. Yuan, Jiahai & Li, Xinying & Xu, Chuanbo & Zhao, Changhong & Liu, Yuanxin, 2019. "Investment risk assessment of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road initiative based on ANP-Entropy-TODIM method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 623-640.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    clean dark spread; clean spark spread; EU Emissions Trading Scheme; Monte Carlo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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