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The effect of police on crime: evidence from the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo

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  • Masiero, Ilaria

Abstract

I estimate the causal impact of police on crime, based on evidence from Brazil. To tackle reverse causality, I consider as a natural experiment the creation of a special police unit to intensify surveillance around a few tournament-related locations in São Paulo during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. To better isolate the specific impact of policing, I account for different ways in which the tournament may affect crime, namely, via fan concentration and voluntary incapacitation. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that increased police presence leads to significant reductions in criminal activity. My estimate of the crime-police elasticity (–0.37) is close to figures obtained in previous studies, suggesting that this effect is robust across settings and remains stable even in a high-crime, weak-institutions context, as in the case of Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Masiero, Ilaria, 2020. "The effect of police on crime: evidence from the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123389, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123389
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Marie, 2016. "Police and thieves in the stadium: measuring the (multiple) effects of football matches on crime," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(1), pages 273-292, January.
    2. Poutvaara, Panu & Priks, Mikael, 2009. "The effect of police intelligence on group violence: Evidence from reassignments in Sweden," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 403-411, April.
    3. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1981. "On the Usefulness of Controlling Individuals: An Economic Analysis of Rehabilitation, Incapacitation, and Deterrence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 307-322, June.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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