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Looking for Multiple Equilibria in Russian Urban System

  • Mikhailova Tatiana

    ()

This paper studies the e®ect of forced labor relocation in GULAG, and the losses during the WWII on the long-term dynamics of city growth in the USSR. The main goal is to test whether the impact of Stalinist policies and the WWII on economic geography of the USSR persists in long run, and whether, in response to these policies, the long-term dynamics of the Soviet city growth shows evidence of multiple equilibria. I ?nd that WWII does not have a statistically signi?cant long-term e®ect on city growth, controlling for other factors, while GULAG system does. The growth of an average city in 1960s exhibits partial mean-reversion after the shocks of 1930s-1950s. The dynamics is consistent with multiple equilibria hypothesis: cities that received a lot of investment (as measured by the GULAG population) in the 1930s-1950s, have a higher chance not to revert to the previous trajectory, but to continue growing, while neglected cities are more likely to decline.

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Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 10/08e.

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Date of creation: 06 Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:10/08e
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  1. Maarten Bosker & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2005. "Looking for Multiple Equilibria when Geography Matters: German City Growth and the WWII Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 1553, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Stephen Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2007. "History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports," CEP Discussion Papers dp0809, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "A Search for Multiple Equilibria in Urban Industrial Structure," NBER Working Papers 10252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Paul Krugman, 1990. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," NBER Working Papers 3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ira N. Gang & Robert C. Stuart, 1999. "Mobility where mobility is illegal: Internal migration and city growth in the Soviet Union," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 117-134.
  6. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
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