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Prediction Ability

  • Katsuya Takii

    (University of Essex)

This paper models managerial human capital as the ability to predict future events. My assignment model shows that a manager who has high prediction ability goes into a risky industry, because risk increases the marginal productivity of prediction ability. This conclusion contrasts with that of Lucas (1978). In Lucas's model talented managers simply manage bigger firms. The data supports my view: talented B-school graduates choose to work in risky industries, and the correlation between an ability measure and a risk measure is 0.75. The simulated assignment model fits B-school placement data quite well, and a 1 percent increase in the GMAT score of a B-school graduate implies a 158 percent increase in the risk of the firm to which the graduate is assigned. I also employ a dynamic analysis, which shows that prediction ability increases a firm's expected Tobin's Q and allows a firm to attain a higher expected growth rate. The COMPUSTAT dataset confirms these points as well.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1411.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1411
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  1. Oi, Walter Y, 1983. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Organization of Production," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(2), pages 147-71, April.
  2. Katsuya Takii, 2000. "Prediction Ability," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1411, Econometric Society.
  3. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 1978. "On the Size Distribution of Business Firms," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 508-523, Autumn.
  4. Gretsky, Neil E. & Ostroy, Joseph M. & Zame, William R., 1999. "Perfect Competition in the Continuous Assignment Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 60-118, September.
  5. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  6. Kihlstrom, Richard E, 1974. "A Bayesian Model of Demand for Information About Product Quality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 99-118, February.
  7. Becker, Gary S, 1973. "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 813-46, July-Aug..
  8. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
  9. Ann P. Bartel & Nachum Sicherman, 1999. "Technological Change and Wages: An Interindustry Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 285-325, April.
  10. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1987. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1979. "A General Equilibrium Entrepreneurial Theory of Firm Formation Based on Risk Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 719-48, August.
  12. Sattinger, Michael, 1993. "Assignment Models of the Distribution of Earnings," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 831-80, June.
  13. Demers, Michel, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 333-50, April.
  14. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Prediction Ability and Investment under Uncertainty," Industrial Organization 0406005, EconWPA.
  15. Holmes, Thomas J & Schmitz, James A, Jr, 1990. "A Theory of Entrepreneurship and Its Application to the Study of Business Transfers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 265-94, April.
  16. Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-46, September.
  17. Miller, Robert A, 1984. "Job Matching and Occupational Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1086-120, December.
  18. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-42, June.
  19. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
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