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Prediction Ability and Investment under Uncertainty

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  • Katsuya Takii

    (Osaka School of International Public Plicy, Osaka University)

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing one of the most important intangible assets in a firm: the ability to predict profitable investment opportunities. This paper shows theoretically how to measure the accuracy of information used to predict opportunities, and estimates the value of information in the context of a firm's investment decision problem. Empirical study confirms the theoretical results of the model: (1) prediction ability has a large positive impact on firm's expected profits; and (2) prediction ability increases the mean and the variance of the growth rate of a firm's capital stock.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Prediction Ability and Investment under Uncertainty," Industrial Organization 0406005, EconWPA.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0406005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    4. Michael Salinger & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Tax Reform and Corporate Investment: A Microeconometric Simulation Study," NBER Chapters,in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 247-288 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. O'Brien, James M, 1981. "Estimating the Information Value of Immediate Disclosure of the FOMC Policy Directive," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1047-1061, December.
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    8. Takii, Katsuya, 2000. "Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 9991, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    9. Susan Athey & Jonathan Levin, 1998. "The Value of Information In Monotone Decision Problems," Working papers 98-24, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    10. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
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    12. Nicola Persico, 2000. "Information Acquisition in Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 135-148, January.
    13. Katsuya Takii, 2003. "Prediction Ability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 80-98, January.
    14. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 1-74.
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    18. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
    2. Takii, Katsuya, 2000. "Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 9991, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    3. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Efficiency: An Empirical Framework and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0411006, EconWPA.
    4. Katsuya Takii, 2003. "Prediction Ability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 80-98, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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