IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpio/0406005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prediction Ability and Investment under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Katsuya Takii

    (Osaka School of International Public Plicy, Osaka University)

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing one of the most important intangible assets in a firm: the ability to predict profitable investment opportunities. This paper shows theoretically how to measure the accuracy of information used to predict opportunities, and estimates the value of information in the context of a firm's investment decision problem. Empirical study confirms the theoretical results of the model: (1) prediction ability has a large positive impact on firm's expected profits; and (2) prediction ability increases the mean and the variance of the growth rate of a firm's capital stock.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Prediction Ability and Investment under Uncertainty," Industrial Organization 0406005, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0406005
    Note: Type of Document - pdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/io/papers/0406/0406005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    3. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    4. Michael Salinger & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Tax Reform and Corporate Investment: A Microeconometric Simulation Study," NBER Chapters,in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 247-288 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 2006. "Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations, and Internal Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 796-810, June.
    6. O'Brien, James M, 1981. "Estimating the Information Value of Immediate Disclosure of the FOMC Policy Directive," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1047-1061, December.
    7. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    8. Takii, Katsuya, 2000. "Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 9991, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    9. Susan Athey & Jonathan Levin, 1998. "The Value of Information In Monotone Decision Problems," Working papers 98-24, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    10. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    11. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    12. Nicola Persico, 2000. "Information Acquisition in Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 135-148, January.
    13. Katsuya Takii, 2003. "Prediction Ability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 80-98, January.
    14. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 1-74.
    15. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    16. Antonovitz, Frances & Roe, Terry, 1986. "A Theoretical and Empirical Approach to the Value of Information in Risky Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 105-114, February.
    17. Ueda, Kazuo & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1986. "Financial Volatility and the q Theory of Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(29), pages 11-27, February.
    18. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    19. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
    2. Takii, Katsuya, 2000. "Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 9991, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    3. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Efficiency: An Empirical Framework and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0411006, EconWPA.
    4. Katsuya Takii, 2003. "Prediction Ability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 80-98, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0406005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.