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Prediction Ability and Investment under Uncertainty

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Katsuya Takii

    (Osaka School of International Public Plicy, Osaka University)

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing one of the most important intangible assets in a firm: the ability to predict profitable investment opportunities. This paper shows theoretically how to measure the accuracy of information used to predict opportunities, and estimates the value of information in the context of a firm's investment decision problem. Empirical study confirms the theoretical results of the model: (1) prediction ability has a large positive impact on firm's expected profits; and (2) prediction ability increases the mean and the variance of the growth rate of a firm's capital stock.

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File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/io/papers/0406/0406005.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0406005.

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Date of creation: 06 Jun 2004
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0406005
Note: Type of Document - pdf
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
  • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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  1. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02.
  3. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
  4. Michael Salinger & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Tax Reform and Corporate Investment: A Microeconometric Simulation Study," NBER Chapters,in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 247-288 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 2006. "Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations, and Internal Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 796-810, June.
  6. O'Brien, James M, 1981. "Estimating the Information Value of Immediate Disclosure of the FOMC Policy Directive," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1047-1061, December.
  7. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
  8. Takii, Katsuya, 2000. "Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 9991, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  9. Susan Athey & Jonathan Levin, 1998. "The Value of Information In Monotone Decision Problems," Working papers 98-24, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  10. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
  11. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  12. Nicola Persico, 2000. "Information Acquisition in Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 135-148, January.
  13. repec:esx:essedp:518 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Katsuya Takii, 2003. "Prediction Ability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 80-98, January.
  15. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 1-74.
  16. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  17. Antonovitz, Frances & Roe, Terry, 1986. "A Theoretical and Empirical Approach to the Value of Information in Risky Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 105-114, February.
  18. Ueda, Kazuo & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1986. "Financial Volatility and the q Theory of Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(29), pages 11-27, February.
  19. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
  20. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
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Cited by:

  1. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
  2. Takii, Katsuya, 2000. "Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 9991, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  3. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Efficiency: An Empirical Framework and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0411006, EconWPA.
  4. Katsuya Takii, 2003. "Prediction Ability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 80-98, January.

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