IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20232868.html

Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat currencies

Author

Listed:
  • Di Casola, Paola
  • Habib, Maurizio Michael
  • Tercero-Lucas, David

Abstract

We analyse the drivers of Bitcoin transactions against 44 fiat currencies in the largest peer-to-peer crypto exchanges. Momentum and volatility in the cryptoasset market, as well as volatility and liquidity in global financial markets do matter for Bitcoin trading. There is suggestive evidence of a global crypto cycle driven by speculative motives. However, in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), Bitcoin seems to offer also transactional benefits, since trading increases when the value of the domestic currency is unstable. Proxies of banking depth and digitalisation are negatively correlated with the currency loadings on the global factor, indicating that crypto-assets may offer a speculative alternative to traditional finance when this is not available, especially in EMDEs where the share of younger risk-prone population is higher. Our results clearly point to potential financial stability risks from cryptoisation in EMDEs with low levels of financial development and unstable fiat currencies. JEL Classification: E42, F21, F24, F32, F38, G15, O33

Suggested Citation

  • Di Casola, Paola & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2023. "Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat currencies," Working Paper Series 2868, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232868
    Note: 334027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2868~0c2ad2e6e7.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    2. Igor Makarov & Antoinette Schoar, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance (DeFi)," NBER Working Papers 30006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Shimon Kogan & Igor Makarov & Marina Niessner & Antoinette Schoar, 2023. "Are Cryptos Different? Evidence from Retail Trading," NBER Working Papers 31317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bianchi, Daniele & Babiak, Mykola & Dickerson, Alexander, 2022. "Trading volume and liquidity provision in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Raphael Auer & Giulio Cornelli & Sebastian Doerr & Jon Frost & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2022. "Crypto trading and Bitcoin prices: evidence from a new database of retail adoption," BIS Working Papers 1049, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Uhlig, Harald, 2022. "A Luna-tic Stablecoin Crash," CEPR Discussion Papers 17465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One," CESifo Working Paper Series 7981, CESifo.
    9. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    10. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, May.
    11. Baur, Dirk G. & Hoang, Lai, 2021. "The Bitcoin gold correlation puzzle," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    12. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    13. Erik Feyen & Jon Frost & Harish Natarajan & Tara Rice, 2021. "What Does Digital Money Mean for Emerging Market and Developing Economies?," Springer Books, in: Raghavendra Rau & Robert Wardrop & Luigi Zingales (ed.), The Palgrave Handbook of Technological Finance, pages 217-241, Springer.
    14. Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, 2016. "Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 2016/005, International Monetary Fund.
    15. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:45:p:61-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    17. Fernando E. Alvarez & David Argente & Diana Van Patten, 2022. "Are Cryptocurrencies Currencies? Bitcoin as Legal Tender in El Salvador," NBER Working Papers 29968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2021. "The volatility of Bitcoin and its role as a medium of exchange and a store of value," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2663-2683, November.
    19. Raphael Auer & Marc Farag & Ulf Lewrick & Lovrenc Orazem & Markus Zoss, 2022. "Banking in the shadow of Bitcoin? The institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies," BIS Working Papers 1013, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Graf von Luckner, Clemens & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2023. "Decrypting new age international capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 104-122.
    21. Alexei Onatski, 2010. "Determining the Number of Factors from Empirical Distribution of Eigenvalues," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1004-1016, November.
    22. Sean Foley & Jonathan R Karlsen & Tālis J Putniņš, 2019. "Sex, Drugs, and Bitcoin: How Much Illegal Activity Is Financed through Cryptocurrencies?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1798-1853.
    23. Weber, Michael & Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2023. "Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance," IZA Discussion Papers 16335, IZA Network @ LISER.
    24. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    25. Auer, Raphael & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2022. "Distrust or speculation? The socioeconomic drivers of U.S. cryptocurrency investments," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    26. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ayuba Napari, 2026. "Cryptoization and Volatility of the Exchange Rate in Nigeria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 98-115.
    2. Heike Joebges & Hansjörg Herr & Christian Kellermann, 2025. "Crypto assets as a threat to financial market stability," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(2), pages 473-502, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vesa Pursiainen & Jan Toczynski, 2023. "Retail Investors’ Cryptocurrency Investments," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-51, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Baur, Dirk G. & Karlsen, Jonathan R. & Smales, Lee A. & Trench, Allan, 2024. "Digging deeper - Is bitcoin digital gold? A mining perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    3. Austin Kennedy, 2025. "Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels," Papers 2508.06662, arXiv.org.
    4. Ms. Natasha X Che & Alexander Copestake & Davide Furceri & Tammaro Terracciano, 2023. "The Crypto Cycle and US Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2023/163, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Kennedy, Austin, 2025. "Fiscal spillovers through informal financial channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Shimeng Shi, 2022. "Bitcoin futures risk premia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2190-2217, December.
    7. Carbó-Valverde, Santiago & Cuadros-Solas, Pedro J. & Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco, 2025. "Cryptocurrency ownership and cognitive biases in perceived financial literacy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    8. Feyen,Erik H.B. & Kawashima,Yusaku & Mittal,Raunak, 2022. "Crypto-Assets Activity around the World : Evolution and Macro-Financial Drivers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9962, The World Bank.
    9. Civelli, Andrea & Jackson, Laura E., 2025. "Cryptocurrencies, stocks, and economic policy uncertainty: A FAVAR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. GUO-FITOUSSI, Liang, 2013. "A Comparison of the Finite Sample Properties of Selection Rules of Factor Numbers in Large Datasets," MPRA Paper 50005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Alain-Philippe Fortin & Patrick Gagliardini & O. Scaillet, 2022. "Eigenvalue tests for the number of latent factors in short panels," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-81, Swiss Finance Institute.
    12. Wei, Jie & Chen, Hui, 2020. "Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models by twice K-fold cross validation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    13. Yongfu Huang & Muhammad G. Quibria, 2015. "The global partnership for sustainable development," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 0(3-4), pages 157-174, August.
    14. Ioannis A. Venetis & Avgoustinos Ladas, 2023. "Co-movement and global factors in sovereign bond yields," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 17-45.
    15. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    16. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Risk characteristics and connectedness in cryptocurrency markets: New evidence from a non-linear framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    17. Zhang, Yixiao & Yu, Cindy L. & Li, Haitao, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP Using Dynamic Factor Model with Unknown Number of Factors and Stochastic Volatility: A Bayesian Approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 75-93.
    18. Salvatore Capasso & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2025. "From financial development to informality: a causal link," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 203(3), pages 539-572, June.
    19. Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul & Jyh‐Lin Wu, 2018. "Identifying Exchange Rate Common Factors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(4), pages 2193-2218, November.
    20. Cahill, Daniel & G. Baur, Dirk & (Frank) Liu, Zhangxin & W. Yang, Joey, 2020. "I am a blockchain too: How does the market respond to companies’ interest in blockchain?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232868. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.