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Crypto trading and Bitcoin prices: evidence from a new database of retail adoption

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Listed:
  • Auer, Raphael
  • Cornelli, Giulio
  • Doerr, Sebastian
  • Frost, Jon
  • Gambacorta, Leonardo

Abstract

Prices for cryptocurrencies have undergone multiple boom-bust cycles, together with ongoing entry by retail investors. To investigate the drivers of crypto adoption, we assemble a novel database (made available with this paper) on retail use of crypto exchange apps at daily frequency for 95 countries over 2015–22. We show that a rising Bitcoin price is followed by the entry of new users. About 40% of these new users are men under 35, commonly identified as the most “risk-seeking†segment of the population. To establish a causal effect of prices on adoption, we exploit two exogenous shocks: the crackdown of Chinese authorities on crypto mining in mid-2021 and the social unrest in Kazakhstan in early 2022. During both episodes price changes have a significant effect on the entry of new users. Results from a PVAR model corroborate these findings. Overall, back of the envelope calculations suggest that around three-quarters of users have lost money on their Bitcoin investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Auer, Raphael & Cornelli, Giulio & Doerr, Sebastian & Frost, Jon & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2023. "Crypto trading and Bitcoin prices: evidence from a new database of retail adoption," CEPR Discussion Papers 17823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17823
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    2. Jabbour, George M. & Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal, 2025. "“Dollarization vs. bitcoinization in Türkiye: Which is more dangerous for the financial market?”," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Hokkanen, Topi, 2023. "Externalities and market failures of cryptocurrencies," BoF Economics Review 4/2023, Bank of Finland.
    4. Hodula, Martin, 2025. "Does U.S. monetary policy sway global crypto investment demand?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Carbó-Valverde, Santiago & Cuadros-Solas, Pedro J. & Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco, 2025. "Cryptocurrency ownership and cognitive biases in perceived financial literacy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    6. Raphael Auer & Ulf Lewrick & Jan Paulick, 2025. "DeFiying gravity? An empirical analysis of cross-border Bitcoin, Ether and stablecoin flows," BIS Working Papers 1265, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Chen, S. & Doerr, S. & Frost, J. & Gambacorta, L. & Shin, H.S., 2023. "The fintech gender gap," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Kogan, Shimon & Makarov, Igor & Niessner, Marina & Schoar, Antoinette, 2024. "Are cryptos different? Evidence from retail trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    9. Vesa Pursiainen & Jan Toczynski, 2023. "Retail Investors’ Cryptocurrency Investments," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-51, Swiss Finance Institute.
    10. Di Casola, Paola & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2023. "Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat currencies," Working Paper Series 2868, European Central Bank.
    11. V. Shiva Sankari & R. Kavitha, 2025. "Bitcoin adoption and price elasticity of demand: cross-country insights," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Katherine Baer & Ruud De Mooij & Shafik Hebous & Michael Keen, 2023. "Taxing cryptocurrencies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 39(3), pages 478-497.
    13. Matteo Aquilina & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2025. "Cryptocurrencies and decentralised finance: functions and financial stability implications," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 156, May.
    14. Lioba Heimbach & Wenqian Huang, 2024. "DeFi leverage," BIS Working Papers 1171, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Alessio Brini & Jimmie Lenz, 2024. "A comparison of cryptocurrency volatility-benchmarking new and mature asset classes," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, December.
    16. Alessio Brini & Jimmie Lenz, 2024. "A Comparison of Cryptocurrency Volatility-benchmarking New and Mature Asset Classes," Papers 2404.04962, arXiv.org.
    17. Hodula, Martin, 2025. "Retail crypto investors when facing financial constraints: Evidence from energy shocks and the use and downloads of crypto trading apps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Civelli, Andrea & Jackson, Laura E., 2025. "Cryptocurrencies, stocks, and economic policy uncertainty: A FAVAR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Kogana, Shimon & Makarov, Igor & Niessnerc, Marina & Schoar, Antoinette, 2024. "Are cryptos different? Evidence from retail trading," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Sergio Luis Náñez Alonso & Javier Jorge-Vázquez & Miguel Ángel Echarte Fernández & David Sanz-Bas, 2024. "Bitcoin’s bubbly behaviors: does it resemble other financial bubbles of the past?," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    22. Aquilina, Matteo & Frost, Jon & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2024. "Tackling the risks in crypto: Choosing among bans, containment and regulation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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