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Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows

Author

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  • Graf von Luckner, Clemens
  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Rogoff, Kenneth

Abstract

This paper employs high frequency transactions data on the world’s two oldest and most extensive centralized peer-to-peer Bitcoin markets, which enables trade in the currencies of more than 160 countries. We develop an algorithm that allows us, with high probability, to detect “crypto vehicle transactions†in which crypto currency is used to move capital across borders, and/or to exchange one fiat currency for another. The data suggests that the use of Bitcoin has become an important channel to receive remittances and evade capital controls in emerging markets. This insight allows to develop a novel series for market-determined parallel exchange rates, a key indicator of macroeconomic imbalances; the series covers many countries and time periods where there is limited or no survey evidence, including the explosion of parallel rate premia since the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Graf von Luckner, Clemens & Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2023. "Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 17859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17859
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2022. "The Mayekawa Lecture: Institutional Innovation and Central Bank Independence 2.0," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 40, pages 25-38, November.
    3. Kennedy, Austin, 2025. "Fiscal spillovers through informal financial channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Murakami, David & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2025. "Cryptocurrencies in emerging markets: A stablecoin solution?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Alnasaa, Marwa & Gueorguiev, Nikolay & Honda, Jiro & Imamoglu, Eslem & Mauro, Paolo & Primus, Keyra & Rozhkov, Dmitriy, 2022. "Crypto-assets, corruption, and capital controls: Cross-country correlations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Raphael Auer & Ulf Lewrick & Jan Paulick, 2025. "DeFiying gravity? An empirical analysis of cross-border Bitcoin, Ether and stablecoin flows," BIS Working Papers 1265, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Austin Kennedy, 2025. "Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels," Papers 2508.06662, arXiv.org.
    8. Saggese, Pietro & Belmonte, Alessandro & Dimitri, Nicola & Facchini, Angelo & Böhme, Rainer, 2023. "Arbitrageurs in the Bitcoin ecosystem: Evidence from user-level trading patterns in the Mt. Gox exchange platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 251-270.
    9. Marinela BÃRBULESCU & Alina HAGIU, 2022. "The Connotations Of The Crisis On The Cryptoassets Market," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, vol. 21(3), pages 123-136.
    10. Giménez Roche, Gabriel A. & Noël, Antoine & Sauce, Loïc, 2025. "Bitcoin trade volume in decentralized markets: International evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    11. Yanan Niu, 2024. "Bitcoin and Shadow Exchange Rates," Papers 2410.22443, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    12. Di Casola, Paola & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2023. "Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat currencies," Working Paper Series 2868, European Central Bank.
    13. Cerutti, Eugenio & Casanova, Catherine & Pradhan, Swapan-Kumar, 2023. "Banking across borders: Are Chinese banks different?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Adrián Armas & Lucero Ruiz & José Luis Vásquez, 2022. "Assessing CBDC potential for developing payment systems and promoting financial inclusion in Peru," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), CBDCs in emerging market economies, volume 123, pages 131-151, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Feyen,Erik H.B. & Kawashima,Yusaku & Mittal,Raunak, 2022. "Crypto-Assets Activity around the World : Evolution and Macro-Financial Drivers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9962, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

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