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Monetary policy and the flow of funds in the euro area

  • Bonci, Riccardo

This paper provides new evidence on the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area, assessing the impact of an unexpected increase of the short-term interest on the lending and borrowing activity of the different economic sectors. We exploit the information content of the flow-of-funds statistics, that provide the most appropriate framework to analyse the flowing of funds from one sector (the lender) to the other (the borrower). We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate a small VAR model for the euro area over the period 1991Q1 to 2009Q2. Then, we extend the benchmark VAR model in order to include the flow-of-funds series and analyse the response of the latter variables to a contractionary monetary policy shock. We find that the policy tightening is followed by a worsening of the budget deficit; firms cut on their demand for bank loans, partially replacing them with inter-company loans, and draw on their liquidity to try to offset the fall of revenues associated with the slowdown of economic activity; households reduce net borrowing and increase precautionary saving in the short run. Consistent with the bank lending channel of monetary policy at work, the interest rate hike is followed by a short-run deceleration of credit growth, mainly driven by the response of banks. JEL Classification: E32, E4, E52, G11

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1402.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111402
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  1. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the euro Area," Working Papers ECARES 2008_040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Ehrmann, M., 2000. "Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission - Evidence from German Business Survey Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/12, European University Institute.
  3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Eric M. Leeper & David B. Gordon, 1991. "In search of the liquidity effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 403, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. R. Bonci & F. Columba, 2008. "Monetary policy effects: new evidence from the Italian flow-of-funds," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2803-2818.
  6. Isabel Marques Gameiro & João Sousa, 2010. "Monetary Policy Effects: Evidence from the Portuguese Flow of Funds," Working Papers w201014, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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