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What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model

Author

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  • Hiebert, Paul
  • Sydow, Matthias

Abstract

We apply a dynamic dividend-discount model to analyse unexpected housing returns in a panel of eight euro area countries which together comprise 90% of euro area GDP. The application of this model allows for a de-composition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components. The empirical application of the model involves the estimation of a panel vector autoregressive model (VAR) for four variables –excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income– using quarterly data over the period 1985-2007. This empirical investigation yields two main findings. First, the bulk of the variability of house price move-ments in the panel of countries analysed can be attributed to movements in the rental yield. Indeed, perturbations to rents appear to result in a one-to-one analogous movement in house prices over the long term once controlling for changes in expected returns. Second, evidence from the dynamic profile of shocks along with the negative co-movement between changing rental yield expectations and changing expected returns on housing assets would suggest that euro area house prices overreact to news. JEL Classification: R21, C33, G12

Suggested Citation

  • Hiebert, Paul & Sydow, Matthias, 2009. "What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model," Working Paper Series 1019, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. John Krainer & Chishen Wei, 2004. "House prices and fundamental value," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct1.
    3. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2010. "Expected Returns and Expected Growth in Rents of Commercial Real Estate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3469-3519.
    4. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
    5. Joshua Gallin, 2008. "The Long-Run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 635-658, December.
    6. John F. Henry & L. Randall Wray, 1998. "Economic Time," Macroeconomics 9811004, EconWPA.
    7. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    8. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    9. Castrén, Olli & Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Sydow, Matthias, 2006. "What drives EU banks' stock returns? Bank-level evidence using the dynamic dividend-discount model," Working Paper Series 677, European Central Bank.
    10. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    11. Castrén, Olli & Osbat, Chiara & Sydow, Matthias, 2006. "What drives investors' behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis," Working Paper Series 706, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jhouse:v:36:y:2017:i:c:p:73-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nobili, Andrea & Zollino, Francesco, 2017. "A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 73-87.
    3. Angi RÖSCH & Harald SCHMIDBAUER, "undated". "Effects of Weekly Inventory Data Releases on Crude Oil Spot Prices," EcoMod2010 259600144, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cash flow news; house price; housing rental yield; panel VAR estimation; return decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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