IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbardp/rdp2020-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Local Housing Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Calvin He

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Gianni La Cava

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

We document that the effect of monetary policy on housing prices varies substantially by local housing market. We show that this heterogeneity across local housing markets can be partly explained by variation in housing supply conditions – housing prices are typically more sensitive to changes in interest rates in areas where land is more expensive. But other factors are important too. Specifically, we find the sensitivity is greater in areas where incomes are relatively high, households are more indebted and there are more investors. Taken together, this suggests that the state of the economy can affect the sensitivity of housing prices to monetary policy. We also directly explore how monetary policy affects housing wealth inequality. We find that housing prices in more expensive areas are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than in cheaper areas. This suggests that lower interest rates increase housing wealth inequality, while higher rates do the opposite. However, these effects appear to be temporary.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvin He & Gianni La Cava, 2020. "The Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2020-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2020/pdf/rdp2020-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Ross Kendall & Peter Tulip, 2018. "The Effect of Zoning on Housing Prices," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2013. "The Industrial Impact of Monetary Shocks During the Inflation‐Targeting Era in Australia," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(1), pages 47-71, March.
    4. Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    5. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    6. Helen Hughson & Gianni La Cava & Paul Ryan & Penelope Smith, 2016. "The Household Cash Flow Channel of Monetary Policy," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 21-30, September.
    7. Ben-David, Itzhak & Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2019. "Expectations During the U.S. Housing Boom: Inferring Beliefs from Actions," Working Paper Series 2019-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    8. Martin Beraja & Andreas Fuster & Erik Hurst & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "Regional Heterogeneity and the Refinancing Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(1), pages 109-183.
    9. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 697-743, March.
    10. Ryan Fox & Peter Tulip, 2014. "Is Housing Overvalued?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Christopher G Gibbs & Jonathan Hambur & Gabriela Nodari, 2018. "DSGE Reno: Adding a Housing Block to a Small Open Economy Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Christopher Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka & Matthew N. White, 2017. "The distribution of wealth and the marginal propensity to consume," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), pages 977-1020, November.
    13. G.C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2018. "Interest Rates, Local Housing Markets and House Price Over†reactions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 33-48, June.
    14. Andrea Colciago & Anna Samarina & Jakob de Haan, 2019. "Central Bank Policies And Income And Wealth Inequality: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 1199-1231, September.
    15. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2006. "Urban growth and housing supply," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 71-89, January.
    17. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    19. James Bishop & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Anticipatory Monetary Policy and the 'Price Puzzle'," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    21. Daniel H. Cooper & Maria Jose Luengo-Prado & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2016. "Monetary policy and regional house-price appreciation," Working Papers 16-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    22. Fischer, Manfred M. & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Staufer-Steinnocher, Petra, 2018. "The dynamic impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices in the United States," Working Papers in Regional Science 2018/09, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    23. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Petra Staufer‐Steinnocher, 2021. "The Dynamic Impact of Monetary Policy on Regional Housing Prices in the United States," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1039-1068, December.
    24. Benjamin Beckers, 2020. "Credit Spreads, Monetary Policy and the Price Puzzle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    25. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kueng, Lorenz & Silvia, John, 2017. "Innocent Bystanders? Monetary policy and inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 70-89.
    26. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
    27. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    28. Glenn Otto, 2007. "The Growth of House Prices in Australian Capital Cities: What Do Economic Fundamentals Explain?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 40(3), pages 225-238, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gianni La Cava & Calvin He, 2021. "The Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Local Housing Markets in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 387-397, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gianni La Cava & Calvin He, 2021. "The Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Local Housing Markets in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 387-397, September.
    2. Flor, Michael A. & Klarl, Torben, 2017. "On the cyclicity of regional house prices: New evidence for U.S. metropolitan statistical areas," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 134-156.
    3. MeiChi Huang, 2020. "A threshold unobserved components model of housing bubbles: timings and effectiveness of monetary policies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 887-908, August.
    4. Horvath, Roman & Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2021. "Equity premium and monetary policy in a model with limited asset market participation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 430-440.
    5. Peter Chinloy & Jonathan Wiley, 2013. "Renegade Asset Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 197-226, August.
    6. Trent Saunders & Peter Tulip, 2019. "A Model of the Australian Housing Market," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. G.C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2018. "Interest Rates, Local Housing Markets and House Price Over†reactions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 33-48, June.
    8. Trent Saunders & Peter Tulip, 2020. "A Model of the Australian Housing Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(S1), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Eskelinen, Maria, 2021. "Monetary policy, agent heterogeneity and inequality: insights from a three-agent New Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 2590, European Central Bank.
    10. Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Household balance sheet channels of monetary policy: A back of the envelope calculation for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    12. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Teo, Wing Leong, 2011. "Should the optimal portfolio be region-specific? A multi-region model with monetary policy and asset price co-movements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 293-304, May.
    13. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    14. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    15. Hohberger, Stefan & Priftis, Romanos & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "The distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    16. Benati, Luca, 2021. "Leaning against house prices: A structural VAR investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 399-412.
    17. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The Role of Households' Borrowing Constraints in the Transmission of Monetary Policy This paper investigates how the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy depends on the distribution of ," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    18. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The role of households' borrowing constraints in the transmission of monetary policy," Sciences Po publications 20/2019, Sciences Po.
    19. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbs, Oliver W., 2016. "Aging and urban house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 276-291.
    20. Eiji Goto, 2020. "Industry Impacts of Unconventional Monetary Policy," 2020 Papers pgo873, Job Market Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; monetary policy; mortgage debt; inequality; heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2020-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.