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Equal size, equal role? Interdependence between the euro area and the United States

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  • Ehrmann, Michael
  • Fratzscher, Marcel

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the degree and the nature of economic and monetary policy interdependence between the United States and the euro area have changed with the advent of EMU. Using real-time data, it addresses this issue from the perspective of financial markets by analysing the effects of monetary policy announcements and macroeconomic news on daily interest rates in the United States and the euro area. First, the paper finds that the interdependence of money markets has increased strongly around EMU. Although spillover effects from the United States to the euro area remain stronger than in the opposite direction, we present evidence that US markets have started reacting also to euro area developments since the onset of EMU. Second, beyond these general linkages, the paper finds that certain macroeconomic news about the US economy have a large and significant effect on euro area money markets, and that these effects have become stronger in recent years. Finally, we show that US macroeconomic news have become good leading indicators for economic developments in the euro area. This indicates that the higher money market interdependence between the United States and the euro area is at least partly explained by the increased real integration of the two economies in recent years. JEL Classification: E43, E52, F42

Suggested Citation

  • Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Equal size, equal role? Interdependence between the euro area and the United States," Working Paper Series 342, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004342
    Note: 203739
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kui-Wai Li, 2013. "The US monetary performance prior to the 2008 crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3450-3461, August.
    2. Rebecca Hellerstein, 2011. "Global bond risk premiums," Staff Reports 499, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Noor Azryani Auzairy & Chee Yong Thing, 2016. "Lending Interest Rates’ Relationships of Malaysia and Other Countries," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(3), pages 127-137, JUNE.
    4. Weber, Enzo, 2011. "What happened to the transatlantic capital market relations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 877-884, May.
    5. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank.
    6. Nahid Kalbasi Anaraki, 2021. "Federal Funds Rate Spillover to ECB Interest Rate: Are Macroeconomic Fundamentals Important?," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 9(1), pages 40-47.
    7. Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Structural analysis with independent innovations," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 208, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
    9. Noor Azryani Auzairy & Chee Yong Thing, 2016. "Lending Interest Rates’ Relationships of Malaysia and Other Countries," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(12), pages 127-137, JUNE.
    10. Habib Rahman & Hasan Mohsin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Pakistani Market," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 342-360, December.
    11. POPOVICI, Oana Cristina, 2015. "A Volatility Analysis Of The Euro Currency And The Bond Market," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(1), pages 67-79.
    12. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 11792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Giorgio Valente, 2005. "US Monetary Policy Announcements and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Working Papers 092005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Who Leads Financial Markets?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    15. Helmut Herwartz & Jan Roestel, 2011. "Convergence of Real Capital Market Interest Rates—Evidence from Inflation Indexed Bonds," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1523-1541, October.
    16. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'reilly, 2007. "UK Stock Returns and the Impact of Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5‐6), pages 872-888, June.
    17. Dan Luo & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2011. "The effect of monetary policy on investors’ risk perception: Evidence from the UK and Germany," Working Papers 1107, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    18. Nuno Ferreira & Rui Menezes & Sónia Bentes, 2013. "Globalization, Regime-Switching, and EU Stock Markets: the Impact of the Sovereign Debt Crises," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 3(3), pages 556-556.
    19. Györfy Lehel & Madaras Szilárd, 2019. "The Influence of Self-Employment on Early-Stage Entrepreneurship in Romania. A Global Entrepreneurship Monitor-Based Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, December.
    20. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 317-341, March.
    21. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'reilly, 2007. "UK Stock Returns and the Impact of Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5‐6), pages 872-888, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    announcements; euro area.; interdependence; money markets; news; real-time data; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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