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A Class of Marked Point Processes for Modelling Electricity Prices

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This paper presents a family of processes to model electricity spot prices in deregulated markets. Besides mean-reversion, a property they share with other comodities, power prices exhibit the unique feature of spikes in trajectories. We introduce a class of discontinuous processes exhibiting a « jump-reversion » component to properly represent these sharp upward moves shortly followed by drops of similar magnitude. Our approach allows to capture – for the first time to our knowledge – both the trajectorial and statistical properties of electricity pool prices. The quality of the fitting is illustrated on a database of major US power markets.

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  • Geman, Hélyette & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2003. "A Class of Marked Point Processes for Modelling Electricity Prices," ESSEC Working Papers DR 03004, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-03004
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    Cited by:

    1. Alfredo Trespalacios & Lina M. Cortés & Javier Perote, 2019. "Modeling the electricity spot price with switching regime semi-nonparametric distributions," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 17618, Universidad EAFIT.
    2. Javier Pantoja-Robayo & Kelly Maradey Angarita & Alfredo Trespalacios Carrasquilla, 2017. "Analysis of the financial margins required to hedge risks in electric power futures markets," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 21(45), pages 68-107, December.
    3. Alfredo Trespalacios & Lina M. Cortés & Javier Perote, 2021. "Modeling Electricity Price and Quantity Uncertainty: An Application for Hedging with Forward Contracts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, June.
    4. Ona Duarte Venslauskas & John J. García Rendón, 2015. "Estimación del precio marginal del sistema eléctrico colombiano: una mirada desde la organización industrial," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(41), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Trespalacios, Alfredo & Cortés, Lina M. & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Uncertainty in electricity markets from a semi-nonparametric approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Rafal Weron, 2005. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options," Econometrics 0502003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Falbo, Paolo & Fattore, Marco & Stefani, Silvana, 2010. "A new index for electricity spot markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2739-2750, June.
    8. Javier Orlando Pantoja Robayo & Kelly Maradey Angarita & Alfredo Trespalacios Carrasquilla, 2013. "Evaluación de los márgenes requeridos en un mercado de derivados de energía eléctrica," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 11996, Universidad EAFIT.
    9. Islyaev, Suren & Date, Paresh, 2015. "Electricity futures price models: Calibration and forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 144-154.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    electricity prices; deregulated market; price risk; statistical models; US power markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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