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Estimación del precio marginal del sistema eléctrico colombiano: una mirada desde la organización industrial

Author

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  • Ona Duarte Venslauskas
  • John J. García Rendón

Abstract

Construimos un modelo de Cournot para simular el comportamiento estratégico de las empresas generadoras líderes del mercado eléctrico colombiano. Usamos las cantidades estimadas con este modelo para construir dos variables de organización industrial: el índice de demanda residual y el índice de Herfindahl e Hirschman (HHI). Con ellas estimamos modelos vectoriales autorregresivos (VAR) que permitan estimar el precio en bolsa (PMS) y hacer análisis impulso-respuesta. Los resultados muestran que la capacidad de almacenamiento de las empresas hidráulicas permite un mayor comportamiento estratégico que las térmicas en periodos de demanda baja, mientras que las térmicas son más estratégicas en periodos de demanda alta. Además los choques sobre los cambios en la demanda residual y en la concentración del mercado se reflejan en un comportamiento fluctuante sobre el crecimiento del PMS, lo que se puede interpretar como una reacción de la estrategia de las empresas ante un cambio en las circunstancias del mercado.

Suggested Citation

  • Ona Duarte Venslauskas & John J. García Rendón, 2015. "Estimación del precio marginal del sistema eléctrico colombiano: una mirada desde la organización industrial," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(41), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000442:014935
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Índice de demanda residual; índice de Herfindahl-Hirschman; mercado eléctrico; modelo de Cournot; precio marginal del sistema; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L19 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Other
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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