Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis
We conduct an empirical analysis of electricity forward prices using a high-frequency data set of hourly spot and day-ahead forward prices. We find that there are significant risk premia in electricity forward prices. These premia vary systematically throughout the day and are directly related to economic risk factors such as the volatility of unexpected changes in prices and demand as well as the risk of price spikes. In contrast to the popular post-Enron view that electricity markets are easily manipulated, these results support the hypothesis that electricity forward prices are determined rationally by risk-averse economic agents.
|Date of creation:||01 Jul 2002|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA. 90095|
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/anderson_fin/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hirshleifer, David, 1990. "Hedging Pressure and Futures Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 411-428, March.
- Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000.
"Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06.
- Bryan Routledge & Duane Seppi & Chester Spatt, "undated". "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," GSIA Working Papers 1997-50, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Bryan Routledge & Duane Seppi & Chester Spatt, "undated". "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," GSIA Working Papers 1997-49, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Breeden, Douglas T., 1984. "Futures markets and commodity options: Hedging and optimality in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 275-300, April.
- Hemler, Michael L. & Longstaff, Francis A., 1991. "General Equilibrium Stock Index Futures Prices: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 287-308, September.
- Richard, Scott F. & Sundaresan, M., 1981. "A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 347-371, December.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
- Villaplana, Pablo & Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio & Escribano, Álvaro, 2002. "Modeling electricity prices: international evidence," UC3M Working papers. Economics we022708, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233-233.
- Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1993. "Futures versus Share Contracting as Means of Diversifying Output Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 620-638, May.
- Hirshleifer, D. & Subrahmanyam, A., 1990. "Futures Versus Share Contracting As Means Of Diversifing Output Risk," Papers fb-_90-07, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 39-54, April.
- Jagannathan, Ravi, 1985. " An Investigation of Commodity Futures Prices Using the Consumption-based Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 175-191, March.
- Chester Spatt & Bryan Routledge & Duane Seppi, 1998. "The Spark Spread: An equilibrium model of the Cross-Commodity Price Relationships in Electricity," GSIA Working Papers 1999-15, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. " Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
- Hazuka, Thomas B, 1984. " Consumption Betas and Backwardation in Commodity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 647-655, July.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-667. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt7mh2m2bt. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.