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Lowest low fertility in an urban context: when migration plays a key role


  • Francesca Michielin

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)


In countries with so-called "lowest-low" fertility, the lowest fertility levels are seen in the cities. The main reasons for this development is the difference in the cost of living expenses, combined with income constraints in cities, as compared to these same aspects in rural areas. If we focus our attention on the center of an urban area, migration needs to be taken into account, since it can contribute to particularly low yield fertility. In this paper we use the Turin Longitudinal Study, which has data on all people who have ever been residents in Turin (Italy) during the period 1971-2001. We study the interdependencies between fertility and out-migration choices for a selected group, from the 1956 birth-cohort. In order to fully understand fertility, we need to consider how fertility acts on out-migration choices. Our findings underline the important role of economic resources and life cycle events in such a context which seem to guide both fertility and migration behaviors. Moreover, while having a child significantly hampers long-distance migration, it also has a lower impact on short-distant moves.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Michielin, 2002. "Lowest low fertility in an urban context: when migration plays a key role," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-050, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-050

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. R. Davies & R. Crouchley & A. Pickles, 1982. "Modelling the evolution of heterogeneity in residential mobility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(3), pages 291-299, August.
    2. Øystein Kravdal, 2001. "The High Fertility of College Educated Women in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(6), pages 187-216, December.
    3. Alden Speare, 1974. "Residential satisfaction as an intervening variable in residential mobility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(2), pages 173-188, May.
    4. Lee Lillard & Linda Waite, 1993. "A joint model of marital childbearing and marital disruption," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 30(4), pages 653-681, November.
    5. Lillard, Lee A., 1993. "Simultaneous equations for hazards : Marriage duration and fertility timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 189-217, March.
    6. William Frey & Frances Kobrin, 1982. "Changing families and changing mobility: Their impact on the central city," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(3), pages 261-277, August.
    7. Mincer, Jacob, 1978. "Family Migration Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 749-773, October.
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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General


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