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Tax Compliance of Multinationals and Industry Concentration in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Matěj Bajgar

    (Charles University, CERGE-EI)

  • Petr Janský

    (Charles University, CERGE-EI)

  • Tijmen Tuinsma

    (Tax Justice Network, Charles University)

Abstract

We study whether stronger tax compliance among multinationals can reduce industry concentration. Exploiting the 2016 introduction of country-by-country reporting in the European Union as a natural experiment, we implement a difference-in-differences design comparing large multinational groups subject to the reform with unaffected firms. We find that increased tax compliance led to a significant decline in multinationals’ consolidated global sales, with a one-percentage-point rise in effective tax rates associated with a 1.8% reduction in sales. Sales of the affected multinationals’ subsidiaries also declined, and industry concentration fell in sectors where top firms were subject to the reform. The results suggest that curbing profit-shifting can reduce the competitive advantage of large multinationals and, consequently, industry concentration.

Suggested Citation

  • Matěj Bajgar & Petr Janský & Tijmen Tuinsma, 2025. "Tax Compliance of Multinationals and Industry Concentration in the European Union," Working Papers 038, EU Tax Observatory.
    • Handle: RePEc:dbp:wpaper:038
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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