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How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?



An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, "undated". "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1943

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1990. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 381-392, Oct.-Dec..
    2. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-966, November.
    3. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    4. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    More about this item


    Central Bank; Uncertainty; Stochastic Simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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