IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/1864.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty"

Author

Abstract

In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic forecasts.�The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not variances of economic forecasts.�This paper discusses what the Fed could report in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for the Fed to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 2012. "How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1864, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1864
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d18/d1864.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1990. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 381-392, Oct.-Dec..
    3. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    4. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-190, April.
    5. Ray Fair, 2003. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 245-256, June.
    6. Parke, William R, 1982. "An Algorithm for FIML and 3SLS Estimation of Large Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 81-95, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. [経済]政策委員の大勢見通しなんかいらない
      by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-07-24 12:00:00
    2. How to report Fed uncertainty
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-07-18 19:25:00

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Ray C. Fair, "undated". "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1990. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 381-392, Oct.-Dec..
    4. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-22.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    7. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 8-18, February.
    8. Yue Ma & Guy Meredith & Matthew S. Yiu, 2002. "A Currency Board Model of Hong Kong," Working Papers 012002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Dury, Karen & Pina, Alvaro M., 2003. "Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 179-206, February.
    10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1325-1353, November.
    11. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Juillard, Michel & Karamé, Fréderic & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Mutschler, Willi & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Rion, Normann & Villemot, Sébastien, 2022. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 5," Dynare Working Papers 72, CEPREMAP, revised Mar 2023.
      • Stéphane Adjemian & Houtan Bastani & Michel Juillard & Frédéric Karamé & Ferhat Mihoubi & Willi Mutschler & Johannes Pfeifer & Marco Ratto & Sébastien Villemot & Normann Rion, 2023. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 5," PSE Working Papers hal-04219920, HAL.
      • Stéphane Adjemian & Houtan Bastani & Michel Juillard & Frédéric Karamé & Ferhat Mihoubi & Willi Mutschler & Johannes Pfeifer & Marco Ratto & Sébastien Villemot & Normann Rion, 2023. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 5," Working Papers hal-04219920, HAL.
    12. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Effects of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 693, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Prytula, Yaroslav & Raskina, Julia & Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2009. "A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1172-1183, November.
    14. Wouter J. Den Haan & Albert Marcet, 1994. "Accuracy in Simulations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 3-17.
    15. Ray Fair, 2001. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2576, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    16. Fair Ray C, 2003. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, December.
    17. Ray Fair, 2001. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2576, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    18. Anderson, Evan W. & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2012. "Small noise methods for risk-sensitive/robust economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 468-500.
    19. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    20. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2499, Yale School of Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting uncertainty; Fed policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.