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How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty?



In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic forecasts. The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not variances of economic forecasts. This paper discusses what the Fed could report in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for the Fed to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 2012. "How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1864, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1864

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Donald J. Brown & Chris Shannon, 2000. "Uniqueness, Stability, and Comparative Statics in Rationalizable Walrasian Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1529-1540, November.
    2. Brown, Donald J & Matzkin, Rosa L, 1996. "Testable Restrictions on the Equilibrium Manifold," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1249-1262, November.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How to report Fed uncertainty
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-07-18 19:25:00
    2. [経済]政策委員の大勢見通しなんかいらない
      by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-07-24 12:00:00

    More about this item


    Forecasting uncertainty; Fed policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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