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Pre-AI Sorting, Post-AI Inequality: Generative AI and the Gender Wage Gap

Author

Listed:
  • Joacim Tåg
  • Fredrik Heyman
  • Malin Gardberg
  • Martin Olsson

Abstract

We examine how gender-based occupational sorting before the release of ChatGPT relates to predicted exposure to generative AI and its potential implications for the gender wage gap. Using Swedish administrative data, we find that women are overrepresented in occupations predicted to be more affected by generative AI. Mechanical partial-equilibrium simulations, based on hypothesized deviations from the 2021 occupational and wage distribution and incorporating predicted AI exposure and task complementarity, show that generative AI can widen the gender wage gap through existing patterns of gender-based occupational sorting.

Suggested Citation

  • Joacim Tåg & Fredrik Heyman & Malin Gardberg & Martin Olsson, 2026. "Pre-AI Sorting, Post-AI Inequality: Generative AI and the Gender Wage Gap," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26118, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cortes, Patricia & Feng, Ying & Guida-Johnson, Nicolás & Pan, Jessica, 2023. "Automation and Gender: Implications for Occupational Segregation and the Gender Skill Gap," IZA Discussion Papers 16695, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Gmyrek, Pawel, & Berg, Janine, & Bescond, David,, 2023. "Generative AI and jobs a global analysis of potential effects on job quantity and quality," ILO Working Papers 995324892702676, International Labour Organization.
    3. Paul Beaudry & Ethan Lewis, 2014. "Do Male-Female Wage Differentials Reflect Differences in the Return to Skill? Cross-City Evidence from 1980-2000," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 178-194, April.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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