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Pre-AI Sorting, Post-AI Inequality: Generative AI and the Gender Wage Gap

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Abstract

We examine how gender-based occupational sorting before the release of ChatGPT relates to predicted exposure to generative AI and its potential implications for the gender wage gap. Using Swedish administrative data, we find that women are overrepresented in occupations predicted to be more affected by generative AI. Simulations based on deviations from the 2021 occupational and wage distribution—incorporating predicted AI exposure and task complementarity—show that generative AI can widen the gender wage gap through existing patterns of occupational sorting.

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  • Gardberg, Malin & Heyman, Fredrik & Olsson, Martin & Tåg, Joacim, 2025. "Pre-AI Sorting, Post-AI Inequality: Generative AI and the Gender Wage Gap," Working Paper Series 1534, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1534
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    JEL classification:

    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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