Bargaining and Sustainability: The Argentine Debt Swap of 2005
When Argentine sovereign default in December 2001 led to a collapse of the peso, the burden of dollar debt became demonstrably unsustainable. But it was not clear what restructuring was feasible, nor when. Eventually, in 2005 after a delay of more than three years, a supermajority of creditors accepted a swap implying a recovery rate of around 37 cents in the dollar. In this paper a bargaining approach is used to explain both the settlement and the delay. We conclude that the agreed swap broadly corresponds to a bargaining outcome where the Argentine government had 'first mover' advantage, and that a substantial delay occurred as negotiators seeking a sustainable settlement waited for economic recovery. Factors not explicit in the formal framework are also considered - heterogeneity of creditors, for example, and the role of third parties in promoting 'good faith' bargaining.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002.
"Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons,"
Research Department Publications
4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6821, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004.
"Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Muthoo,Abhinay, 1999. "Bargaining Theory with Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521576475.
- Rubinstein, Ariel, 1982.
"Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 97-109, January.
- Sturzenegger, Federico & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008.
"Haircuts: Estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings, 1998-2005,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 780-805, September.
- Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Federico Sturzenegger, 2005. "Haircuts; Estimating Investor Losses in Sovereign Debt Restructurings, 1998-2005," IMF Working Papers 05/137, International Monetary Fund.
- Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989.
"A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February.
- Jeremy A.Rogoff Bulow & Kenneth, 1986. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 43, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Scholarly Articles 12491028, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Jeremy I. Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1986. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 2088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mario Damill, 2005.
"The Argentinean Debt: History, Default and Restructuring,"
ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 6(3), pages 29-90.
- Mario DAMİLL & Martin RAPETTİ & Roberto FRENKEL, 2005. "The Argentinean debt: History, default and restructuring," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 20(236), pages 5-26.
- Bhattacharya, Sudipto & Detragiache, Enrica, 1994. " The Role of Multilateral Institutions in the Market for Sovereign Debt," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 515-29.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.