Trade Preferences to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Costs of Lost Multilateral Liberalization
The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization over the last 20 years has raised the question of whether it slows down multilateral trade liberalization. Recent theoretical and empirical evidence indicates this is the case even for unilateral preferences that developed countries provide to small and poor countries but there is no estimate of the resulting welfare costs. To avoid this stumbling block effect we suggest replacing unilateral preferences by a fixed import subsidy. We argue that this scheme would reduce the drag of preferences on multilateral liberalization and generate a Pareto improvement. More importantly, we provide the first estimates of the welfare cost of preferential liberalization as a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization. By combining recent estimates of the stumbling block effect of preferences with data for 170 countries and over 5,000 products we calculate the welfare effects of the United States, European Union and Japan switching from unilateral preferences to Least Developed Countries to the import subsidy scheme. Even in a model with no dynamic gains to trade we find that the switch produces an annual net welfare gain for the 170 countries ($4,354 million) and for each group: the United States, European Union and Japan ($2,934 million), Least Developed Countries ($520 million) and the rest of the world ($900 million).
|Date of creation:||May 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chang, Won & Winters, L. Alan, 1999.
"How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Won Chang & L. Alan Winters, 2002. "How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 889-904, September.
- Won Chang & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "How regional blocs affect excluded countries - the price effects of MERCOSUR," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2157, The World Bank.
- Levy, Philip I, 1997. "A Political-Economic Analysis of Free-Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 506-19, September.
- Brown, Drusilla, 1989. "A computational analysis of Japan's generalized system of preferences," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 103-128, January.
- T.N. Srinivasan, 1999. "Developing Countries in the World Trading System: From GATT, 1947, to the Third Ministerial Meeting of WTO, 1999," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(8), pages 1047-1064, November.
- Carlo Perroni & John Whalley, 1994.
"The New Regionalism: Trade Liberalization or Insurance?,"
NBER Working Papers
4626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlo Perroni & John Whalley, 2000. "The new regionalism: trade liberalization or insurance?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, February.
- André Sapir, 1981. "Trade benefits under the EEC generalized system of preferences," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Shah, Shekhar & Mishra, Deepak & Panagariya, Arvind, 1996.
"Demand elasticities in international trade : are they really low?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1712, The World Bank.
- Panagariya, Arvind & Shah, Shekhar & Mishra, Deepak, 2001. "Demand elasticities in international trade: are they really low?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 313-342, April.
- Mattoo, Aaditya & Subramanian, Arvind, 2004.
"The WTO and the poorest countries: the stark reality,"
World Trade Review,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 385-407, November.
- Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "The WTO and the Poorest Countries; The Stark Reality," IMF Working Papers 04/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Kee, Hiau Looi & Nicita, Alessandro & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2004.
"Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4669, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nuno Limão, 2002.
"Are Preferential Trade Agreements with Non-trade Objectives a Stumbling Bloc for Multilateral Liberalization?,"
- Lim“o, Nuno, 2002. "Are Preferential trade Agreements with Non-trade Objectives a Stumbling Block for Multilateral Liberalization?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 129, Royal Economic Society.
- McCulloch, Rachel & Pinera, Jose, 1977. "Trade as Aid: The Political Economy of Tariff Preferences for Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 959-67, December.
- Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank.
- Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 1997. "Regionalism and Multilateral Tariff Cooperation," NBER Working Papers 5921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hans P. Lankes & Katerina Alexandraki, 2004. "The Impact of Preference Erosionon Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/169, International Monetary Fund.
- Bagwell,K. & Staiger,R.W., 1998.
"An economic theory of GATT,"
15, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Karacaovali, Baybars & Limão, Nuno, 2005.
"The Clash of Liberalizations: Preferential vs. Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the European Union,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Karacaovali, Baybars & Limão, Nuno, 2008. "The clash of liberalizations: Preferential vs. multilateral trade liberalization in the European Union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 299-327, March.
- Baybars Karacaovali & Nuno Limao, 2005. "The Clash Of Liberalizations: Preferential Vs. Multilateral Trade Liberalization In The European Union," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1037, International Trade and Finance Association.
- Azam, Jean-Paul & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 2003. "Contracting for aid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 25-58, February.
- Marcelo Olarreaga & Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita, 2004. "Estimating Import Demand and Export Supply Elasticities," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 368, Econometric Society.
- Christopher S Adam & Stephen A O'Connell, 2004. "Aid versus Trade Revisited: Donor and Recipient Policies in the Presence of Learning-by-Doing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(492), pages 150-173, 01.
- André Sapir & Richard Baldwin & Daniel Cohen & Anthony Venables, 1999. "Market integration, regionalism and the global economy," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8074, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Hoekman, Bernard, 2004. "Dismantling Discrimination Against Developing Countries: Access, Rules and Differential Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Limão, Nuno, 2005. "Preferential Trade Agreements as Stumbling Blocks for Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Evidence for the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 4884, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.