IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/4889.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit Crunch and Keynesian Contraction: Argentina in Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • García-Fronti, Javier
  • Miller, Marcus
  • Zhang, Lei

Abstract

The Argentine convertibility regime, where the peso was fixed at parity with the US dollar, ended with a ‘twin crisis’ – a tripling in the price of a dollar and a protracted closure of the entire banking system – accompanied by an economic contraction so severe that it is often referred to as ‘Nuestra gran depresión’. But the government's attempt to imitate President Roosevelt by pesifying dollar loan contracts (while simultaneously protecting dollar depositors) had the effect of destroying bank net worth in the absence of credible compensation. To analyse the macroeconomic effects of credit crunch and currency collapse (and of policies to mitigate them), we turn to a model of crisis, specifically that of Aghion, Bacchetta & Banerjee (2000). Our account, however, combines the supply contraction cause by balance sheet effect with a Keynesian demand contraction due to a domestic credit crunch, exacerbated by unsuccessful resolution of the banking crisis. The latter is analysed as a game of political economy played between government and banks about who pays for the banking crisis induced by default and asymmetric pesification.

Suggested Citation

  • García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2005. "Credit Crunch and Keynesian Contraction: Argentina in Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4889
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=4889
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    3. Kreps, David M. & Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Rational cooperation in the finitely repeated prisoners' dilemma," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 245-252, August.
    4. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    5. García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2002. "Sovereign Default By Argentina: 'Slow Motion Train Crash' or Self-Fulfilling Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 117, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1909, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Sebastian Galiani & Mariano Tommasi & Daniel Heymann, 2002. "Missed Expectations: The Argentine Convertibility," Working Papers 55, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Nov 2003.
    10. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    11. repec:rus:hseeco:124089 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Stephen A O'Connell, 2006. "A Sovereign Debt Model with Trade Credit and Reserves," WEF Working Papers 0004, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    13. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, February.
    14. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
    15. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2002. "IS-LM-BP in the Pampas," NBER Working Papers 9337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bergman, U. Michael & Jellingsø, Mads, 2010. "Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-18, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Argentina debt crisis; asymmetric pesification; conflicting beliefs; keynesian recession; twin crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4889. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.