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A Graphical Representation of an Estimated DSGE Model

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  • Kulish, Mariano
  • Jones, Callum

Abstract

We write a New Keynesian model as an aggregate demand curve and an aggregate supply curve, relating inflation to output growth. The graphical representation shows how structural shocks move aggregate demand and supply simultaneously. We estimate the curves on US data from 1948 to 2010. The Great Recession in 2008-09 is explained by a collapse of aggregate demand driven by adverse preference and permanent technology shocks, and expectations of low inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kulish, Mariano & Jones, Callum, 2011. "A Graphical Representation of an Estimated DSGE Model," Dynare Working Papers 3, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter N. Ireland, 2011. "A New Keynesian Perspective on the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 31-54, February.
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Licandro, Omar, 2005. "The Under-Estimated Virtues of the Two-sector AK Model. Contributions to Macroeconomics," Munich Reprints in Economics 20595, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    4. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2015. "New-Keynesian economics: An AS–AD view," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 503-524.
    5. Adam Cagliarini & Mariano Kulish, 2013. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Predictable Structural Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 328-336, March.
    6. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 923-936, November.
    7. Alvarez-Lois, Pedro & Harrison, Richard & Piscitelli, Laura & Scott, Alasdair, 2008. "On the application and use of DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2428-2452, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish, 2014. "A practical introduction to DSGE modeling with Dynare (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 12, pages 23-44, February.
    2. repec:ind:igowpp:2018-005 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Michael Funke & Andrew Tsang, 2021. "The Direction and Intensity of China’s Monetary Policy: A Dynamic Factor Modelling Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(316), pages 100-122, March.
    4. Goyal, Ashima & Kumar, Abhishek, 2018. "Active monetary policy and the slowdown: Evidence from DSGE based Indian aggregate demand and supply," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 21-40.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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