IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-338.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this paper

The economic impacts of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease outbreak in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Glyn Wittwer

Abstract

This study uses a multi-country, dynamic quarterly CGE model, GlobeTERM, to estimate the economic impacts of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease outbreak in Australia. State government protocols in response to an outbreak concerning Local Control Areas and disease eradication have local severe short-term economic impacts. However, the national welfare losses arising from the outbreak depend mostly on the duration of trade sanctions by importers of Australian animal products. If an outbreak is contained within several months, and trade sanctions are dropped within a year of the outbreak, the net present value of Australia's welfare losses may be around $10 billion. If all importers restore Australian access within a year, other than China which delays by 5 years, welfare losses are around $21 billion. In a less likely scenario, in which trade sanctions persist in all trading partners for 5 years after the disease has been eradicated, contrary to international guidelines, welfare losses may exceed $85 billion. Trading partners also suffer welfare losses due to trade sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Glyn Wittwer, 2022. "The economic impacts of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease outbreak in Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-338, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-338.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2022-12
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-338.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tozer, Peter & Marsh, Thomas, 2012. "Domestic and trade impacts of foot-and-mouth disease on the Australian beef industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(3), pages 1-20.
    2. Olivier Mahul & Bernard Durand, 2000. "Simulated economic consequences of foot-and-mouth disease epidemics and their public control in France," Post-Print hal-01952105, HAL.
    3. Adam Blake & M. Thea Sinclair & Guntur Sugiyarto, 2003. "Quantifying the Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease on Tourism and the UK Economy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(4), pages 449-465, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xianglong Locky & Nassios, Jason & Giesecke, James, 2024. "To tax or to spend? Modelling tax policy responses to oil price shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Annika Djurle & Beth Young & Anna Berlin & Ivar Vågsholm & Anne-Lie Blomström & Jim Nygren & Anders Kvarnheden, 2022. "Addressing biohazards to food security in primary production," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1475-1497, December.
    2. Edgardo Ayala & Joana Chapa, 2017. "AH1N1 impact on the Mexican pork meat market," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 32(1), pages 3-25.
    3. Dustin L Pendell & Thomas L Marsh & Keith H Coble & Jayson L Lusk & Sara C Szmania, 2015. "Economic Assessment of FMDv Releases from the National Bio and Agro Defense Facility," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Niccolò Comerio & Fernanda Strozzi, 2019. "Tourism and its economic impact: A literature review using bibliometric tools," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 109-131, February.
    5. Wenming Shi & Meifeng Luo & Mengjie Jin & Seu Keow Cheng & Kevin X. Li, 2020. "Urban–rural income disparity and inbound tourism: Spatial evidence from China," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1231-1247, November.
    6. Alejandro Acosta & Carlos Barrantes & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 960-976, July.
    7. Zhao, Zishun & Wahl, Thomas I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2006. "Invasive Species Management: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the U.S. Beef Industry," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 98-115, April.
    8. Zhang, Ke & Hou, Yuansi & Li, Gang, 2020. "Threat of infectious disease during an outbreak: Influence on tourists' emotional responses to disadvantaged price inequality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Stephen Pratt, 2012. "Tourism Yield of Different Market Segments: A Case Study of Hawaii," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(2), pages 373-391, April.
    10. Juan L. Eugenio-Martin & Noelia Martín-Morales & M. Thea Sinclair, 2008. "The Role of Economic Development in Tourism Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 673-690, December.
    11. Gramig, Benjamin M. & Horan, Richard D., 2011. "Jointly determined livestock disease dynamics and decentralised economic behavior," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(3), pages 1-18, September.
    12. Allan, Grant J. & Lecca, Patrizio & Swales, Kim, 2017. "The impacts of temporary but anticipated tourism spending: An application to the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 325-337.
    13. Brigitte Nerlich, 2004. "War on foot and mouth disease in the UK, 2001: Towards a cultural understanding of agriculture," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 21(1), pages 15-25, March.
    14. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Lehtonen, Heikki, 2014. "Livestock product trade and highly contagious animal diseases," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169759, Agricultural Economics Society.
    15. David Perrain & Philippe Jean-Pierre, 2019. "The smart destination strategy, a key factor for changes in vulnerable tourist destinations? [La stratégie de destination intelligente, facteur clé des mutations des destinations touristiques vulné," Post-Print hal-02144769, HAL.
    16. Arens, Ludwig & Thulke, Hans-Hermann & Eisinger, Dirk & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2012. "Administrative cooperation and disease control in cross-border pork production," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 473-482.
    17. D.B. Smorfitt & S.R. Harrison & J.L. Herbohn, 2005. "Potential Economic Implications for Regional Tourism of a Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak in North Queensland," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 411-430, September.
    18. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Air Travel Demand: Some Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
    19. Pendell, Dustin L. & Leatherman, John C. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Alward, Gregory S., 2007. "The Economic Impacts of a Foot-And-Mouth Disease Outbreak: A Regional Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(Special), pages 1-15, October.
    20. Rich, Karl M. & Roland-Holst, David & Otte, Joachim, 2014. "An assessment of the ex-post socio-economic impacts of global rinderpest eradication: Methodological issues and applications to rinderpest control programs in Chad and India," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 248-261.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE modelling; foot and mouth disease; trade sanctions; welfare; CGE modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Horridge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.