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El modelo gravitacional y el TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos

  • Mauricio Cárdenas

    ()

  • Camilo García Jimeno

    ()

El modelo de gravitacional es una conocida herramienta para predecir los flujos de comercio entre países. A partir de datos anuales de comercio entre 178 países para el período 1948-1999, este trabajo estima que un TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos incrementaría el comercio bilateral en 40%. Sin embargo, el comercio caería en 58% de no firmarse el tratado y perderse las preferencias arancelarias del ATPDEA. Otras estimaciones usan datos de importaciones de EEUU por sector económico y encuentran efectos mayores. Además, esta base de datos incluye una medición de los costos de transporte. La elasticidad de las importaciones con respecto a esta variable es de -0.5, lo que implica grandes ganancias de las mejoras en regulación e infraestructura. Abstract: The gravity model is a well-known tool in order to predict international trade patterns. Based on annual trade data for 178 countries between 1948 and 1999, the paper estimates that a FTA between Colombia and the U.S. would raise bilateral trade by 40%. However, trade would fall by 58% if no such agreement is signed, and the unilateral trade preferences granted under ATPDEA are lifted. Another set of estimations uses US imports by sector and finds a much larger effect. In addition, in this database transport costs can bemeasured. The estimated elasticity of imports with respect to thesecosts is -0.5, implying large gains from improvements in regulation andinfrastructure.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/813
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Paper provided by FEDESARROLLO in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO with number 002527.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 30 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000123:002527
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  1. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
  2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005. "On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274.
  4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
  5. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
  6. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," International Trade 9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
  7. Andrew K. Rose, 1990. "Why has trade grown faster than income?," International Finance Discussion Papers 390, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  9. Finger, J M & Yeats, Alexander J, 1976. "Effective Protection by Transportation Costs and Tariffs: A Comparison of Magnitudes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 169-76, February.
  10. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
  11. Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank.
  12. Geraci, Vincent J & Prewo, Wilfried, 1977. "Bilateral Trade Flows and Transport Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 67-74, February.
  13. Berthelon, Matias & Freund, Caroline, 2004. "On the conservation of distance in international trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3293, The World Bank.
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