Valuation Of A Biotech Company: A Real Options Approach
The aim of this paper consists of valuating a real biotechnology firm that is based on a portfolio of several drug development projects at different phases. They are patentprotected R&D projects and their values are obtained by implementing an extension of the real options approach in Schwartz (2004). To be precise, the life cycle of the drug is modeled by considering an alternative and more realistic behavior for the evolution of the FCF, different from the standard Geometric Brownian motion, once the peak sales is reached till the patent expiration, we will also allow for the possibility of the generic entrance once the patent expires. Different expected costs to completion are considered here, that is one equation to each compound; a different probability of catastrophic event depending on the phase and so on. It is shown that the abandonment value is higher for those compounds being in preclinical testing than those in clinical trials.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2004|
|Date of revision:|
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- Hsu, Jason C. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "A Model of R&D Valuation and the Design of Research Incentives," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt28j7c9r4, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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- Jason C. Hsu & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2003. "A Model of R&D Valuation and the Design of Research Incentives," NBER Working Papers 10041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"Investments of Uncertain Cost,"
NBER Working Papers
4175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-47.
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