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Certain and Uncertain Utility: The Allais Paradox and Five Decision Theory Phenomena

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  • James Andreoni
  • Charles Sprenger

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  • James Andreoni & Charles Sprenger, 2010. "Certain and Uncertain Utility: The Allais Paradox and Five Decision Theory Phenomena," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000447, David K. Levine.
  • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:814577000000000447
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    1. Harless, David W & Camerer, Colin F, 1994. "The Predictive Utility of Generalized Expected Utility Theories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1251-1289, November.
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    6. Yoram Halevy, 2008. "Strotz Meets Allais: Diminishing Impatience and the Certainty Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1145-1162, June.
    7. Matthew Rabin, 2000. "Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1281-1292, September.
    8. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
    9. Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
    10. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Keren, Gideon & Roelofsma, Peter, 1995. "Immediacy and Certainty in Intertemporal Choice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 287-297, September.
    12. Uri Gneezy & John A. List & George Wu, 2006. "The Uncertainty Effect: When a Risky Prospect is Valued Less than its Worst Possible Outcome," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1283-1309.
    13. Weber, Bethany J. & Chapman, Gretchen B., 2005. "The combined effects of risk and time on choice: Does uncertainty eliminate the immediacy effect? Does delay eliminate the certainty effect?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 104-118, March.
    14. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    15. Conlisk, John, 1989. "Three Variants on the Allais Example," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 392-407, June.
    16. Enrico Diecidue & Ulrich Schmidt & Peter P. Wakker, 2004. "The Utility of Gambling Reconsidered," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 241-259, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Serfilippi & Michael Carter & Catherine Guirkinger, 2018. "Insurance Contracts when Individuals “Greatly Value” Certainty: Results from a Field Experiment in Burkina Faso," NBER Working Papers 25026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Breitmoser, Yves & Tan, Jonathan H.W., 2013. "Reference dependent altruism in demand bargaining," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 127-140.
    3. Slawomir Kalinowski, 2020. "From expected utility theory to prospect theory: tracking down the experimental path after forty years," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 30(4), pages 39-56.
    4. Jonathan Chapman & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer & Mark Dean, 2017. "Willingness-To-Pay and Willingness-To-Accept are Probably Less Correlated than You Think," CESifo Working Paper Series 6492, CESifo.
    5. Maria J. Ruiz Martos, 2017. "Individual Dynamic Choice Behaviour and the Common Consequence Effect," ThE Papers 17/01, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    6. Ward, Patrick S. & Kumar, Neha & De Nicola, Francesca & Hill, Ruth & Makhija, Simrin & Spielman, David J. & Magnan, Nicholas, 2017. "Insuring Against Drought: Evidence on Agricultural Intensification and Demand for Index Insurance from a Randomized Evaluation in Rural Bangladesh," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258090, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Kumar, Neha & Magnan, Nicholas & Makhija, Simrin & de Nicola, Francesca & Spielman, David J. & Ward, Patrick S., 2017. "Insuring against droughts: Evidence on agricultural intensification and index insurance demand from a randomized evaluation in rural Bangladesh," IFPRI discussion papers 1630, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Pavel Chebotarev, 2023. "Updating Utility Functions on Preordered Sets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-18, November.
    9. Platteau, Jean-Philippe & Ugarte Ontiveros, Darwin, 2021. "Cognitive bias in insurance: Evidence from a health scheme in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Fugger, Nicolas & Gillen, Philippe & Rasch, Alexander & Zeppenfeld, Christopher, 2016. "Preferences and Decision Support in Competitive Bidding," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145849, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Serfilippi, Elena & Carter, Michael & Guirkinger, Catherine, 2020. "Insurance contracts when individuals “greatly value” certainty: Results from a field experiment in Burkina Faso," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 731-743.
    12. Pamela Jakiela & Owen Ozier, 2019. "The Impact of Violence on Individual Risk Preferences: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 547-559, July.
    13. Yanyan Liu & Kevin Chen & Ruth V. Hill, 2020. "Delayed Premium Payment, Insurance Adoption, and Household Investment in Rural China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1177-1197, August.
    14. Caballero, William N. & Lunday, Brian J., 2019. "Influence modeling: Mathematical programming representations of persuasion under either risk or uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 266-282.
    15. Strobl, Renate, 2022. "Background risk, insurance and investment behaviour: Experimental evidence from Kenya," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 34-68.
    16. Katarzyna M. Werner & Horst Zank, 2019. "A revealed reference point for prospect theory," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 67(4), pages 731-773, June.
    17. Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2013. "Chance Theory: A Separation of Riskless and Risky Utility," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1324, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    18. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & David Dillenberger & Pietro Ortoleva & Gil Riella, 2019. "Deliberately Stochastic," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(7), pages 2425-2445, July.
      • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & David Dillenberger & Pietro Ortoleva & Gil Riella, 2012. "Deliberately Stochastic," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 25 May 2017.
    19. repec:hic:wpaper:204 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Eric Le Fur & J. François Outreville, 2021. "Real Options and Reduction of Basic Risk of Index‐Based Climate Agricultural Insurance," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1658-1671, December.
    21. Platteau, Jean-Philippe & De Bock, Ombeline & Gelade, Wouter, 2017. "The Demand for Microinsurance: A Literature Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 139-156.
    22. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Wenzel, Tobias, 2015. "Attention and Endogenous Framing," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112971, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Kolnhofer-Derecskei Anita, 2017. "The Indifferent, the Good Samaritan, the Brave and the Agent in Allais Paradox situation – or How Endowment Effect Influences Our Decision in Case of Allais Paradox?," Organizacija, Sciendo, vol. 50(4), pages 299-313, December.
    24. Yuqing Wang & Yan Ru Pei, 2019. "The Optimal Deterrence of Crime: A Focus on the Time Preference of DWI Offenders," Papers 1909.06509, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.

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