IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ifowps/_427.html

From Trash to Treasure: Trade Insights on Raw Material Substitution

Author

Listed:
  • Isabella Gourevich

Abstract

Recycling and waste trade are increasingly important for mitigating supply risks and en-vironmental concerns associated with raw material imports, yet little is known about the economic and technical potential for substitution between recycled and virgin materials. This paper estimates material-specific cross-price elasticities of substitution using novel global trade data for major recyclable materials from 2013 to 2023, instrumenting vir-gin-material prices with export restrictions. Results show substantial heterogeneity across materials: those with established recycling technologies respond strongly to price incentives, while others display limited substitutability, highlighting the role of technolog-ical feasibility beyond economic viability. Using the estimated elasticities, I evaluate the policy mix required to meet the EU’s 25 percent recycled-content target and document a central misalignment between circular-economy goals and climate-optimal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabella Gourevich, 2026. "From Trash to Treasure: Trade Insights on Raw Material Substitution," ifo Working Paper Series 427, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_427
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/WP-2026-427-Gourevich-Trash-to-Tresure.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Don Fullerton & Thomas C. Kinnaman, 2002. "Garbage, Recycling, and Illicit Burning or Dumping," Chapters, in: Don Fullerton & Thomas C. Kinnaman (ed.), The Economics of Household Garbage and Recycling Behavior, chapter 2, pages 49-62, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Bernard, Sophie, 2015. "North–south trade in reusable goods: Green design meets illegal shipments of waste," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 22-35.
    3. Christian Hagelüken & Daniel Goldmann, 2022. "Recycling and circular economy—towards a closed loop for metals in emerging clean technologies," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 539-562, December.
    4. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
    5. Hai-Lan Yang & Robert Innes, 2007. "Economic Incentives and Residential Waste Management in Taiwan: An Empirical Investigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(3), pages 489-519, July.
    6. Terza, Joseph V. & Basu, Anirban & Rathouz, Paul J., 2008. "Two-stage residual inclusion estimation: Addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 531-543, May.
    7. Katarina Svatikova & Andrew Brown & Peter Börkey, 2025. "Economic instruments for a resource-efficient circular economy," OECD Environment Working Papers 257, OECD Publishing.
    8. Colin A. McMillan & Steven J. Skerlos & Gregory A. Keoleian, 2012. "Evaluation of the Metals Industry's Position on Recycling and its Implications for Environmental Emissions," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 16(3), pages 324-333, June.
    9. Florian Fizaine, 2020. "The economics of recycling rate: New insights from waste electrical and electronic equipment [L'économie du taux de recyclage : nouveaux éclairages sur les déchets électriques et électroniques]," Post-Print hal-02880890, HAL.
    10. Baumol,William J. & Oates,Wallace E., 1988. "The Theory of Environmental Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521322249, August.
    11. Patrik Söderholm & Tomas Ekvall, 2020. "Metal markets and recycling policies: impacts and challenges," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 257-272, July.
    12. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    13. Don Fullerton & Wenbo Wu, 2002. "Policies for Green Design," Chapters, in: Don Fullerton & Thomas C. Kinnaman (ed.), The Economics of Household Garbage and Recycling Behavior, chapter 5, pages 102-119, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Lori Bennear & Robert Stavins, 2007. "Second-best theory and the use of multiple policy instruments," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(1), pages 111-129, May.
    15. Fizaine, Florian, 2020. "The economics of recycling rate: New insights from waste electrical and electronic equipment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Damien Dussaux & Matthieu Glachant, 2019. "How much does recycling reduce imports? Evidence from metallic raw materials," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 128-146, April.
    17. Domenech, Teresa & Bahn-Walkowiak, Bettina, 2019. "Transition Towards a Resource Efficient Circular Economy in Europe: Policy Lessons From the EU and the Member States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 7-19.
    18. Derek Kellenberg, 2015. "The Economics of the International Trade of Waste," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 109-125, October.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    20. Kevin Rennert & Frank Errickson & Brian C. Prest & Lisa Rennels & Richard G. Newell & William Pizer & Cora Kingdon & Jordan Wingenroth & Roger Cooke & Bryan Parthum & David Smith & Kevin Cromar & Dela, 2022. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2," Nature, Nature, vol. 610(7933), pages 687-692, October.
    21. Egger, Peter H. & Keuschnigg, Christian, 2024. "Resource dependence, recycling, and trade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    22. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giulio Cornelli & Magdalena Erdem & Egon Zakrajsek, 2024. "CEO turnover risk and firm environmental performance," BIS Working Papers 1190, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Egger, Peter H. & Keuschnigg, Christian, 2024. "Resource dependence, recycling, and trade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Lehmann, Paul, 2008. "Using a policy mix for pollution control: A review of economic literature," UFZ Discussion Papers 4/2008, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    4. Bettio, Francesca & Tavares, Fernando Flores & Ticci, Elisa, 2024. "Intimate partner violence during lockdown in Tuscany, Italy: economic shock or confinement-related stressors?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1507, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Christian Haas & Karol Kempa, 2023. "Low-Carbon Investment and Credit Rationing," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 109-145, October.
    6. Söderholm, Patrik, 2011. "Taxing virgin natural resources: Lessons from aggregates taxation in Europe," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 55(11), pages 911-922.
    7. Houévoh Amandine R. Gnonlonfin, 2016. "An evaluation of French municipal solid waste pricing system," Working Papers 2016.18, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    8. Batkeyev, Birzhan & DeRemer, David R., 2023. "Mountains of evidence: The effects of abnormal air pollution on crime," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 288-319.
    9. Yokoo, Hide-Fumi & Arimura, Toshi H. & Chattopadhyay, Mriduchhanda & Katayama, Hajime, 2023. "Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Marco Compagnoni & Marco Grazzi & Fabio Pieri & Chiara Tomasi, 2025. "Correction to: Extended Producer Responsibility and Trade Flows in Waste: The Case of Batteries," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(1), pages 77-79, January.
    11. Fiorini, Luciana C. & Jetter, Michael & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Parsons, Christopher, 2020. "The Effect of Community Size on Electoral Preferences: Evidence From Post-WWII Southern Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 13724, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Costa-Font, Joan & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2022. "Health shocks and housing downsizing: How persistent is ‘ageing in place’?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 490-508.
    13. Nirup Menon & Anant Mishra & Shun Ye, 2020. "Beyond Related Experience: Upstream vs. Downstream Experience in Innovation Contest Platforms with Interdependent Problem Domains," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(5), pages 1045-1065, September.
    14. Diana Roa & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2023. "Policies for Material Circularity: the Case of Lithium," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 373-405, March.
    15. Patrik Söderholm & Tomas Ekvall, 2020. "Metal markets and recycling policies: impacts and challenges," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 257-272, July.
    16. Kieschnick, Robert & Moussawi, Rabih, 2018. "Firm age, corporate governance, and capital structure choices," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 597-614.
    17. Vollebergh, Herman, 2013. "Environmental Taxes and Green Growth," Other publications TiSEM 9efd8e7a-397e-428f-95be-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Amore, Mario Daniele & Bennedsen, Morten, 2016. "Corporate governance and green innovation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 54-72.
    19. Fabio Antoniou & Roland Strausz, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Taxation and Feed-in Tariffs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4788, CESifo.
    20. Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2023. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 97-128, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.