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How Sustainable Are Old-age Pensions in a Shrinking Population with Endogenous Labour Supply?

  • Pedro Cardoso
  • Bernard M.S. van Praag

In this paper we model an OLG-economy where labour supply is endogenously determined and where we assume that there are two pension systems, namely, a pay-as-you-go system and a funded system. The main question is whether there is an equilibrium involving an old-age pensions system, partly financed by PAYG and partly by a capital reserve system, and what will be the size and the composition of the pension income. We also look at the consequences of increasing preference for leisure on the design of the pension system. We assume the population growth rate and the technological growth rate to be endogenous; they are assumed to be correlated with the labour supply. Negative population growth is admitted for by the model. The main conclusion is that there is in any economy an equilibrium, but that the numerical outcomes heavily depend on the attitude towards leisure and the capital production elasticity

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 861.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_861
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  1. Cigno, Alessandro, 1993. "Intergenerational transfers without altruism : Family, market and state," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 505-518, November.
  2. Razin, A. & Sadka, E. & Swagel, P., 2000. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," Papers 2000-23, Tel Aviv.
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  4. MICHEL, Philippe & PESTIEAU, Pierre, 1999. "Social security and early retirement in an overlapping-generations growth model," CORE Discussion Papers 1999051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  6. Martin Kolmar, 1997. "Intergenerational redistribution in a small open economy with endogenous fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 335-356.
  7. Lex Meijdam & Harrie Verbon, 1996. "Aging and political decision making on public pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 141-158, June.
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  9. Phillip Swagel & Efraim Sadka & Assaf Razin, 2002. "The Aging of the Population and the Size of the Welfare State," IMF Working Papers 02/68, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Friedrich Breyer & Klaus Stolte, 2001. "Demographic change, endogenous labor supply and the political feasibility of pension reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 409-424.
  11. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "Optimum Social Security in a Life-Cycle Growth Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 539-44, October.
  12. Thomas F. Cooley & Jorge Soares, 1999. "A Positive Theory of Social Security Based on Reputation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(1), pages 135-160, February.
  13. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March.
  14. Casamatta, Georges & Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2003. "Voting on Pensions with Endogenous Retirement Age," CEPR Discussion Papers 3778, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Raffelhuschen, Bernd & Risa, Alf Erling, 1995. "Reforming social security in a small open economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 469-485, September.
  16. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January.
  17. Lettau, Michael K., 1997. "Compensation in part-time jobs versus full-time jobs What if the job is the same?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 101-106, September.
  18. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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