IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_3491.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Bubbles Lead to Overinvestment?: A Revealed Preference Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Robert S. Chirinko
  • Huntley Schaller

Abstract

Many economists believe that the stock market plays an important role in efficiently allocating capital to its most productive uses. This standard story of the stock market was called into question by events in the late 1990s, when some observers believed that stock market overvaluation – or a bubble - led to overinvestment. Both the standard and overinvestment stories involve discount rates and, to differentiate between the two stories, this paper examines the discount rates used by firms in making their investment decisions. We use a revealed preference approach that relies on the pattern of investment spending – combined with investment theory – to estimate the discount rates used by managers. The standard story predicts that firms with high stock prices and good investment opportunities should have discount rates that do not differ systematically from the risk-adjusted market rate. The overinvestment story predicts that firms with high stock prices and poor investment opportunities should have discount rates consistently below the market rate. Based on a panel dataset of over 50,000 firm-year observations, we find support for both stories. The behavior of high stock price firms with good measured investment opportunities is best described by the standard story, while the overinvestment story provides the most appropriate interpretation of the behavior of high stock price firms with poor investment opportunities. Firms in this latter category accumulate between 15.1% and 45.2% too much capital. These estimates suggest that, even before they burst, bubbles adversely affect economic activity by misallocating capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2011. "Do Bubbles Lead to Overinvestment?: A Revealed Preference Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3491, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3491
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp3491.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker, 2009. "Capital Market-Driven Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 181-205, November.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    3. Whited, Toni M, 1992. " Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-1460, September.
    4. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2004. "A revealed preference approach to understanding corporate governance problems: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 181-206, October.
    5. Maureen O'Hara, 2008. "Bubbles: Some Perspectives (and Loose Talk) from History," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 11-17, January.
    6. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2001. "Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": The Japanese Case," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 663-680, June.
    7. Utpal Bhattacharya, 2008. "The Causes and Consequences of Recent Financial Market Bubbles: An Introduction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 3-10, January.
    8. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-455, October.
    9. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
    10. Schaller, Huntley, 2006. "Estimating the long-run user cost elasticity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 725-736, May.
    11. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    12. repec:hrv:faseco:30721347 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," IMK Working Paper 99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Krainer, Robert E., 2013. "Towards a program for financial stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 207-218.
    3. Claudio Battiati, 2017. "R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 48, Bank of Lithuania.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bubbles; investment; stock markets; real effects of financial markets; capital formation;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.