Do Bubbles Lead to Overinvestment?: A Revealed Preference Approach
Many economists believe that the stock market plays an important role in efficiently allocating capital to its most productive uses. This standard story of the stock market was called into question by events in the late 1990s, when some observers believed that stock market overvaluation – or a bubble - led to overinvestment. Both the standard and overinvestment stories involve discount rates and, to differentiate between the two stories, this paper examines the discount rates used by firms in making their investment decisions.We use a revealed preference approach that relies on the pattern of investment spending – combined with investment theory – to estimate the discount rates used by managers. The standard story predicts that firms with high stock prices and good investment opportunities should have discount rates that do not differ systematically from the risk-adjusted market rate. The overinvestment story predicts that firms with high stock prices and poor investment opportunities should have discount rates consistently below the market rate.Based on a panel dataset of over 50,000 firm-year observations, we find support for both stories. The behavior of high stock price firms with good measured investment opportunities is best described by the standard story, while the overinvestment story provides the most appropriate interpretation of the behavior of high stock price firms with poor investment opportunities. Firms in this latter category accumulate between 15.1% and 45.2% too much capital. These estimates suggest that, even before they burst, bubbles adversely affect economic activity by misallocating capital.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stein, Jeremy C., 1996.
"Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World,"
3708373, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2004.
"A revealed preference approach to understanding corporate governance problems: Evidence from Canada,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 181-206, October.
- Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "A Revealed Preference Approach to Understanding Corporate Governance Problems: Evidence from Canada," CESifo Working Paper Series 826, CESifo Group Munich.
- Robert Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "A Revealed Preference Approach to Understanding Corporate Governance Problems: Evidence from Canada," Emory Economics 0210, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2003. "A Revealed Preference Approach. To Understanding Corporate Governance Problems: Evidence From Canada," Economics Series 135, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 1996.
"Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": The Japanese Case,"
28, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2001. "Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": The Japanese Case," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 663-680, June.
- Huntley Schaller & Robert S. Chirinko, 1995. "Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": the Japanese Case," Carleton Economic Papers 95-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
- Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272, December.
- Schaller, Huntley, 2006. "Estimating the long-run user cost elasticity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 725-736, May.
- Whited, Toni M, 1992.
" Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-1460, September.
- Toni M. Whited, 1990. "Debt, liquidity constraints, and corporate investment: evidence from panel data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
- Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1993.
"Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk,"
University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State
84, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Malcolm Baker, 2009. "Capital Market-Driven Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 181-205, November.
- Maureen O'Hara, 2008. "Bubbles: Some Perspectives (and Loose Talk) from History," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 11-17, January.
- Utpal Bhattacharya, 2008. "The Causes and Consequences of Recent Financial Market Bubbles: An Introduction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 3-10, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.