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Stock Market Integration between three CEECs, Russia and the UK

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper estimates a tri-variate VAR-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean model to examine linkages between the stock markets of three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), specifically the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, and both the UK and Russia. The adopted framework allows to analyse interdependence by estimating volatility spillovers, and also contagion by testing for possible shifts in the transmission of volatility following the introduction of the euro and EU accession. Further evidence on possible changes in the transmission mechanism (namely, on whether there is contagion) can be obtained by examining the conditional correlations implied by the estimated model over different time periods. The empirical findings suggest that there is significant co-movement (interdependence) of these CEEC markets with both the Russian and the UK ones. Furthermore, whilst the introduction of the euro has had mixed effects, EU accession has resulted in an increase in volatility spillovers between the three CEECs considered and the UK (contagion).

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nicola Spagnolo, 2010. "Stock Market Integration between three CEECs, Russia and the UK," CESifo Working Paper Series 2978, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2978
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:5:p:1210-1225 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Houda Rharrabti Zaid, 2015. "Transmission du stress financier de la zone euro aux Pays de l’Europe Centrale et Orientale," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-37, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Fedorova, Elena, 2011. "Transfer of financial risk in emerging eastern European stock markets : A sectoral perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Izunna Anyikwa & Micheal Brookes & Pierre Le Roux, 2018. "African stock markets integration: an analysis of the relationship between major stock markets in Africa," Working Papers 1812, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Mar 2018.
    5. repec:eme:ajempp:ajems-03-2017-0047 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fowowe, Babajide & Shuaibu, Mohammed, 2016. "Dynamic spillovers between Nigerian, South African and international equity markets," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 59-80.
    7. Billio, M. & Donadelli, M. & Paradiso, A. & Riedel, M., 2017. "Which market integration measure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 150-174.
    8. Schäfer, Larissa, 2015. "Essays in banking and international finance," Other publications TiSEM 54db9c22-05fa-4444-97d5-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Pui Sun Tam & Pui I Tam, 2012. "Rethinking stock market integration: Globalization, valuation and convergence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-052, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. RNuket Kirci Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Ali M. Kutan, 2016. "Real and Financial Sector Studies in Central and Eastern Europe: A Review," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 2-31, February.
    11. Babecký, Jan & Komárek, Lubos & Komárková, Zlatuse, 2012. "Integration of Chinese and Russian stock markets with world markets : National and sectoral Perspectives," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    12. Monica Billio & Michael Donadelli & Antonio Paradiso & Max Riedel, 2015. "Measuring Financial Integration: Lessons from the Correlation," Working Papers 2015:23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    13. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    14. Andrikopoulos, Andreas & Angelidis, Timotheos & Skintzi, Vasiliki, 2014. "Illiquidity, return and risk in G7 stock markets: Interdependencies and spillovers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-127.
    15. Michal Adam & Piotr Banbula & Michal Markun, 2015. "International Dependence and Contagion across Asset Classes: The Case of Poland," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 254-270, May.
    16. Reboredo, Juan C. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2015. "An analysis of dependence between Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 474-490.
    17. Iikka Korhonen & Anatoly Peresetsky, 2016. "What Influences Stock Market Behavior in Russia and Other Emerging Countries?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1210-1225, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs); volatility spillovers; interdependence; contagion; VAR-GARCH-in-mean model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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