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Quantifying Okun’s Leaky Bucket: The Case of Progressive Childcare Subsidies

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  • David Koll
  • Dominik Sachs
  • Fabian Stürmer-Heiber
  • Hélène Turon

Abstract

We formalize and estimate the dynamic marginal efficiency cost of redistribution (MECR) in the spirit of Okun’s “leaky bucket” to compare the MECR of an income-contingent childcare subsidy program and of the income-contingent tax and transfer schedule. We set up a dynamic structural model of heterogeneous households choosing their childcare demand and maternal labor supply. Allowing for the availability of informal childcare and for consumption of leisure, we estimate this model within the German context. Our analysis identifies two competing forces. (i) Labor supply responses increase the MECR of the childcare subsidy relative to the tax and transfer system. (ii) Child development effects decrease the MECR of the childcare subsidy relative to the income tax. We show that, under most plausible assumptions on the long-term returns to childcare attendance for children growing up in households of different incomes, progressive childcare subsidies are the more efficient redistribution tool.

Suggested Citation

  • David Koll & Dominik Sachs & Fabian Stürmer-Heiber & Hélène Turon, 2024. "Quantifying Okun’s Leaky Bucket: The Case of Progressive Childcare Subsidies," CESifo Working Paper Series 11196, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11196
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    1. Laurence Jacquet & Zhiyang Jia & Thor Olav Thoresen, 2026. "How Much Does Responsibility Matter in Fairness Measurement?," CESifo Working Paper Series 12418, CESifo.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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