IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bri/uobdis/25-799.html

Quantifying Okun’s Leaky Bucket: The Case of Progressive Childcare Subsidies

Author

Listed:
  • David Koll
  • Dominik Sachs
  • Fabian Stürmer-Heiber
  • Hélène Turon

Abstract

We formalize and estimate the dynamic marginal efficiency cost of redistribution (MECR) in the spirit of Okun’s “leaky bucket†to compare the MECR of an income-contingent childcare subsidy program and of the income-contingent tax and transfer schedule. We set up a dynamic structural model of heterogeneous households choosing their childcare demand and maternal labor supply. Allowing for the availability of informal childcare and for consumption of leisure, we estimate this model within the German context. Our analysis identifies two competing forces. (i) Labor supply responses increase the MECR of the childcare subsidy relative to the tax and transfer system. (ii) Child development effects decrease the MECR of the childcare subsidy relative to the income tax. We show that, under most plausible assumptions on the long-term returns to childcare attendance for children growing up in households of different incomes, progressive childcare subsidies are the more efficient redistribution tool.

Suggested Citation

  • David Koll & Dominik Sachs & Fabian Stürmer-Heiber & Hélène Turon, 2025. "Quantifying Okun’s Leaky Bucket: The Case of Progressive Childcare Subsidies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 25/799, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    • Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/799
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/media/workingpapers/working_papers/pdffiles/dp25799.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George‐Levi Gayle & Andrew Shephard, 2019. "Optimal Taxation, Marriage, Home Production, and Family Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 291-326, January.
    2. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    3. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2016. "On the optimal provision of social insurance: Progressive taxation versus education subsidies in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 72-98.
    4. Joseph Mullins, 2022. "Designing Cash Transfers in the Presence of Children's Human Capital Formation," Working Papers 2022-019, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    5. Havnes, Tarjei & Mogstad, Magne, 2015. "Is universal child care leveling the playing field?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 100-114.
    6. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2017. "Optimal Taxation and Human Capital Policies over the Life Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 1931-1990.
    7. Cunha, Flávio & Elo, Irma & Culhane, Jennifer, 2022. "Maternal subjective expectations about the technology of skill formation predict investments in children one year later," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 3-32.
    8. Nathaniel Hendren & Ben Sprung-Keyser, 2020. "A Unified Welfare Analysis of Government Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1209-1318.
    9. Tarjei Havnes & Magne Mogstad, 2011. "No Child Left Behind: Subsidized Child Care and Children's Long-Run Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 97-129, May.
    10. Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski & Nicolas Werquin, 2014. "A Variational Approach to the Analysis of Tax Systems," NBER Working Papers 20780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Saez, Emmanuel & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2018. "A simpler theory of optimal capital taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 120-142.
    12. Alexander Bick, 2016. "The Quantitative Role of Child Care for Female Labor Force Participation and Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 639-668.
    13. Teodora Boneva & Christopher Rauh, 2018. "Parental Beliefs about Returns to Educational Investments—The Later the Better?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(6), pages 1669-1711.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Koll & Dominik Sachs & Fabian Stürmer-Heiber & Hélène Turon, 2023. "Equity and Efficiency of Childcare Subsidies: A Dynamic Structural Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10793, CESifo.
    2. David Koll & Dominik Sachs & Fabian Stürmer-Heiber & Hélène Turon, 2024. "Quantifying Okun’s Leaky Bucket: The Case of Progressive Childcare Subsidies," CESifo Working Paper Series 11196, CESifo.
    3. Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Kaufmann, Katja Maria & Rauh, Christopher, 2022. "Beliefs about Maternal Labor Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 15788, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Mikko Silliman & Juuso Mäkinen, 2026. "Life-cycle effects of public childcare: Evidence on children and their parents," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26004, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    5. Jessen, Jonas & Schmitz, Sophia & Waights, Sevrin, 2020. "Understanding day care enrolment gaps," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    6. Brendon, C., 2022. "Optimal Nonlinear Savings Taxation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2221, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Albert Jan Hummel, 2021. "Unemployment and tax design," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-061/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Spencer Bastani & Daniel Waldenström, 2020. "How Should Capital Be Taxed?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 812-846, September.
    9. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander & Popova, Irina, 2025. "Shaping inequality and intergenerational persistence of poverty: Free college or better schools?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. Findeisen, Sebastian & Sachs, Dominik, 2017. "Redistribution and insurance with simple tax instruments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 58-78.
    11. Dahl, Gordon & Loken, Katrine V., 2024. "Families, public policies, and the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    12. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2024. "Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools," NBER Working Papers 32467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hummel, Albert Jan, 2025. "Unemployment and tax design," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    14. Spencer Bastani & Sören Blomquist & Luca Micheletto, 2020. "Child Care Subsidies, Quality, and Optimal Income Taxation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1-37, November.
    15. Rauh, Christopher & Boneva, Teodora & Kaufmann, Katja, 2021. "Maternal labor supply: Perceived returns, constraints, and social norms," CEPR Discussion Papers 16095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Albert Jan Hummel, 2021. "Unemployment and Tax Design," CESifo Working Paper Series 9177, CESifo.
    17. Ho Christine, 2019. "Optimal Disability Insurance with Informal Child Care," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-42, April.
    18. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2024. "Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    19. repec:cam:camjip:2210 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "Dynamic Taxation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 801-831, August.
    21. Musab Kurnaz & Mehmet Soytas, 2019. "Early Childhood Investment and Income Taxation," 2019 Meeting Papers 290, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/799. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: School of Economics Research Support Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sebriuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.