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Survival Patterns Among Newcomers to Franchising

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  • Timothy Bates

Abstract

This study analyzes survival patterns among franchisee firms and establishments that began operations in 1986 and 1987. Differing methodologies and data bases are utilized to demonstrate that 1) franchises have higher survival rates than independents, and 2) franchises have lower survival rates than independent business formations. Analyses of corporate establishment data generate high franchisee survival rates relative to independents, while analyses of young firm data generate the opposite pattern. In either case, the franchise trait is one of several determinants of survival prospects. The larger-scale, more established firms consistently stay in operation more frequently than smaller-scale, younger firms. Analysis of all corporate establishment restaurant units opened in 1986 or 1987 that use paid employees in 1987 helps to reconcile the seeming inconsistencies reported above. Most of the young franchisee units were not owned by young firms: rather, their parents were multi-establishment franchisees, and most of them were mature firms. Among the true newcomers, franchise survival rates are low; among the entrenched multi-establishment franchisees, survival rates were high.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Bates, 1997. "Survival Patterns Among Newcomers to Franchising," Working Papers 97-1, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:97-1
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/1997/CES-WP-97-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Bates & Robert McGuckin, 1990. "The Characteristics of Business Owners Data Base," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 25(4), pages 736-751.
    2. Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 567-581, June.
    3. Alfred R Nucci & Timothy Bates, 1990. "An Analysis of Small Business Size and Rate of Discontinuance," Working Papers 90-2, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    4. Bates, Timothy, 1990. "Entrepreneur Human Capital Inputs and Small Business Longevity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 551-559, November.
    5. Kaufmann, Patrick J. & Dant, Rajiv P., 1996. "Multi-unit franchising: Growth and management issues," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 343-358, September.
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    7. Mathewson, G Frank & Winter, Ralph A, 1985. "The Economics of Franchise Contracts," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 503-526, October.
    8. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    9. Lafontaine, Francine & Bhattacharyya, Sugato, 1995. "The role of risk in franchising," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1-2), pages 39-74, October.
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    12. Alfred R Nucci, 1992. "The Characteristics of Business Owners Database," Working Papers 92-7, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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