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Are Policy Reform and Growth in Africa Sustainable?

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Louis ARCAND

  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

Abstract

This paper, relying on the results of several cross-sectionnal growth regressions, examines the factors determining the sustainability of policy reforms and growth in Africa. Five structural factors are considered as determinants of policy: 1) ethno-linguistic fragmentation, which influences growth directly rather than through policy, 2) human capital, which due to its low level is an impediment to good policy, although its effect is in all likelihood waning, 3) vulnerability to external shocks, possibly dampened thanks to better management and democratization, 4) political factors, mainly political instability and violence, which themselves partly depend on the previous factors, 5) foreign aid which could be allocated and "conditionned" so as to be more conducive to policy reform and growth. A simplified structural model of growth and policy, estimated in first differences and by GMM, and supplemented by an estimate of a political instability function, summarizes the main lines of our arguments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Louis ARCAND & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 2001. "Are Policy Reform and Growth in Africa Sustainable?," Working Papers 200105, CERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:153
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    2. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    4. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    5. World Bank, 2000. "Can Africa Claim the 21st Century?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22962.
    6. T. Paul Schultz, 1999. "Health and Schooling Investments in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 67-88, Summer.
    7. Jean‐Louis Combes & Patrick Guillaumont, 2002. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 25-39, March.
    8. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.
    9. E Elbadawi & N Sambanis, 2000. "Why are there so many civil wars in Africa? Understanding and preventing violent conflict," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 9(3), pages 244-269.
    10. Jean-Louis Arcand & Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 2000. "How to make a tragedy: on the alleged effect of ethnicity on growth," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(7), pages 925-938.
    11. C. S. Adam & S. A. O’Connell, 1999. "Aid, Taxation and Development in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 225-253, November.
    12. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "On the Economic Vulnerability of Low Income Countries," Working Papers 200016, CERDI.
    13. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    14. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Why Has Africa Grown Slowly?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    15. Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September.
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    1. Ian Bannon & Paul Collier, 2003. "Natural Resources and Violent Conflict : Options and Actions," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15047.
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