IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdf/wpaper/2018-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing a model of UK growth - a causal role for R&D subsidies

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We show that a DSGE model in which subsidies to private sector R&D stimulate economic growth, following the predictions of semi-endogenous growth theory, can account for the joint behaviour of UK output and total factor productivity for 1981-2010. R&D subsidies are measured as government- funded R&D performed by the private sector as a proportion of total private sector R&D. We estimate and test the performance of the model using Indirect Inference, and also investigate the robustness of the results using a Monte Carlo exercise. Our f•ndings indicate that sharp cuts in R&D subsidies tend to have highly persistent growth e¤ects in the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Minford, Lucy & Meenagh, David, 2018. "Testing a model of UK growth - a causal role for R&D subsidies," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2018_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Falk, 2006. "What drives business Research and Development (R&D) intensity across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 533-547.
    2. Danguy, Jérôme & de Rassenfosse, Gaétan & van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno, 2010. "The R&D-patent relationship: An industry perspective," EIB Papers 7/2009, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    3. James Foreman-Peck, 2013. "Effectiveness and efficiency of SME innovation policy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 55-70, June.
    4. de Rassenfosse, Gaetan & van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno, 2009. "A policy insight into the R&D-patent relationship," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 779-792, June.
    5. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    6. Francesco Di Comite & dArtis Kancs, 2015. "Macro-Economic Models for R&D and Innovation Policies," JRC Working Papers on Corporate R&D and Innovation 2015-03, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    7. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    8. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2008. "Perfectly competitive innovation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 435-453, April.
    9. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    10. Dominique Guellec & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe De La Potterie, 2003. "The impact of public R&D expenditure on business R&D," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 225-243.
    11. Aghion, Philippe & Akcigit, Ufuk & Howitt, Peter, 2014. "What Do We Learn From Schumpeterian Growth Theory?," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 515-563, Elsevier.
    12. Goolsbee, Austan, 1998. "Does Government R&D Policy Mainly Benefit Scientists and Engineers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 298-302, May.
    13. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    14. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    15. G. M.P. Swann, 2009. "The Economics of Innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13211.
    16. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
    17. Robert C. Feenstra & Philip Luck & Maurice Obstfeld & Katheryn N. Russ, 2018. "In Search of the Armington Elasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 135-150, March.
    18. Park, Walter G., 2008. "International patent protection: 1960-2005," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 761-766, May.
    19. Papageorgiou, Chris & Perez-Sebastian, Fidel, 2006. "Dynamics in a non-scale R&D growth model with human capital: Explaining the Japanese and South Korean development experiences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 901-930, June.
    20. Helpman,Elhanan & Sadka,Efraim (ed.), 2011. "Economic Policy in the International Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521178426, October.
    21. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
    22. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
    23. Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "The relationship between DSGE and VAR models," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucy Minford & David Meenagh, 2020. "Supply-Side Policy and Economic Growth: A Case Study of the UK," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 159-193, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Minford, Lucy & Meenagh, David, 2019. "Testing a model of UK growth: A role for R&D subsidies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-167.
    2. Lucy Minford & David Meenagh, 2020. "Supply-Side Policy and Economic Growth: A Case Study of the UK," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 159-193, February.
    3. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo, 2013. "Knowledge-Based Capital, Innovation and Resource Allocation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1046, OECD Publishing.
    4. Bettina Becker, 2013. "The Determinants of R&D Investment: A Survey of the Empirical Research," Discussion Paper Series 2013_09, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2013.
    5. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael & Zhu, Zheyi, 2021. "The eurozone: what is to be done?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    6. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & Susanne Prantl, 2015. "Patent rights, product market reforms, and innovation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 223-262, September.
    7. A. Minniti & F. Venturini, 2014. "R&D Policy and Schumpeterian Growth: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers wp945, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    8. Anna Watson, 2019. "Financial Frictions, the Great Trade Collapse and International Trade over the Business Cycle," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 19-64, February.
    9. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2021. "The Effects of R&D Subsidies and Publicly Performed R&D on Business R&D: A Survey," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 236(1), pages 171-205, March.
    10. Xiaoliang Yang & Patrick Minford & David Meenagh, 2021. "Inequality and Economic Growth in the UK," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 37-69, February.
    11. Dong, Xue & Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David, 2019. "How important are the international financial market imperfections for the foreign exchange rate dynamics: A study of the sterling exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 62-80.
    12. Carlino, Gerald & Kerr, William R., 2015. "Agglomeration and Innovation," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 349-404, Elsevier.
    13. Beck, Mathias & Junge, Martin & Kaiser, Ulrich, 2017. "Public Funding and Corporate Innovation," IZA Discussion Papers 11196, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Çağatay Bircan & Ralph De Haas, 2020. "The Limits of Lending? Banks and Technology Adoption across Russia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 536-609.
    15. Janos Varga & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld, 2014. "Growth effects of structural reforms in Southern Europe: the case of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 323-363, May.
    16. de Saint-Georges, Matthis & van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno, 2013. "A quality index for patent systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 704-719.
    17. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2021. "Shadow banks, banking policies and China’s macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    18. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 157-161.
    19. Jeon, Heesang, 2015. "Knowledge and Contemporary Capitalism in Light of Marx's Value Theory," Thesis Commons g5njk, Center for Open Science.
    20. Guidi, Francesco & Solomon, Edna & Trushin, Eshref & Ugur, Mehmet, 2015. "Inverted-U relationship between innovation and survival: Evidence from firm-level UK data," EconStor Preprints 110896, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    R&D; subsidies; economic growth; government policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • O00 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General - - - General
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecscfuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yongdeng Xu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecscfuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.