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R&D and Aggregate Fluctuations

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Abstract

Using US data for the period 1959-2007, we identify sectoral productivity shocks and capital investment-specific shocks by employing a Vector Autoregression whose shock structure is disciplined by a general equilibrium model. Controlling for real and nominal factors, we find that capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation of aggregate output net of R&D investment (i.e. the output of the non-R&D sector). Technology shocks jointly explain almost all the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the non-R&D sector.

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  • Artuç, Erhan & Pourpourides, Panayiotis M., 2012. "R&D and Aggregate Fluctuations," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2012/2
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    Cited by:

    1. Oana Peia, 2017. "Banking Crises and Investments in Innovation," Working Papers 201727, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

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    Keywords

    Productivity Shocks; Investment-specific Shocks; R&D; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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