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R&D and aggregate fluctuations

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  • Artuc, Erhan
  • Pourpourides, Panayiotis M.

Abstract

The research and development (R&D) sector is considered one of the main driving forces of sustainable growth in the long run. The sector, however, also shows excessive volatility which raises interesting questions regarding the sources of this volatility as well as the nature of the relation between the sector and aggregate fluctuations. Using data from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Science Foundation, we show that technology innovations are the main source of fluctuations in R&D investment while R&D technology shocks are important in driving aggregate output fluctuations. After taking nominal innovations into consideration, such as shocks in monetary policy and inflation, capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation in the output of the non-R&D sector. Technology innovations jointly explain most of the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the rest of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Artuc, Erhan & Pourpourides, Panayiotis M., 2012. "R&D and aggregate fluctuations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6017, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6017
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    1. Oana Peia, 2017. "Banking Crises and Investments in Innovation," Working Papers 201727, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. Zhu Weimin & Muhammad Zubair Chishti & Abdul Rehman & Manzoor Ahmad, 2022. "A pathway toward future sustainability: Assessing the influence of innovation shocks on CO2 emissions in developing economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 4786-4809, April.
    3. Alvarez, Roberto & Bravo-Ortega, Claudio & Poniachik, Dan, 2023. "Understanding R&D transitions: From bottom to top?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E-Business; Economic Theory&Research; Political Economy; Research and Development; Labor Policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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