IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ccc/wpaper/005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projections of future emissions and energy use from passenger cars as a result of policies in the EU with a dynamic model of technological change

Author

Listed:
  • Aileen Lam

    (Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Transport is the only sector in the EU in which greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. This paper uses the FTT (future technology transformation) framework to project energy use and emissions from passenger cars in the EU 27 until 2050. Projections are made based on four policy scenarios in order to explore the effect of different policies on penetration and diffusion of cleaner transport technologies. All our scenario projections support the dominance of hybrid cars in 2050. However, our results illustrate that strong emission targets cannot be achieved by only encouraging low-emitting cars, but requires strong policies targeting the cleanest cars. Further emission reductions can be achieved by non-pecuniary measures such as car use reductions and scrappage schemes.

Suggested Citation

  • Aileen Lam, 2013. "Projections of future emissions and energy use from passenger cars as a result of policies in the EU with a dynamic model of technological change," 4CMR Working Paper Series 005, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ccc:wpaper:005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://be.4cmr.group.cam.ac.uk/working-papers/pdf/4cmr_WP_05.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Don Fullerton & Daniel H. Karney, 2010. "Combinations of Instruments to Achieve Low-Carbon Vehicle-Miles," OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers 2010/7, OECD Publishing.
    2. Xavier Gitiaux & Sebastian Rausch & Sergey Paltsev & John M. Reilly, 2012. "Biofuels, Climate Policy, and the European Vehicle Fleet," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 46(1), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801.
    4. Clem Tisdell, 1996. "Bounded Rationality and Economic Evolution," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 960.
    5. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
    6. Ernst, Christian-Simon & Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard & Lunz, Benedikt & Uwe Sauer, Dirk & Eckstein, Lutz, 2011. "Battery sizing for serial plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: A model-based economic analysis for Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5871-5882, October.
    7. Klier, Thomas & Linn, Joshua, 2012. "Using Vehicle Taxes to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rates of New Passenger Vehicles: Evidence from France, Germany, and Sweden," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-34, Resources for the Future.
    8. Jonathan Kohler, Michael Grubb, David Popp and Ottmar Edenhofer, 2006. "The Transition to Endogenous Technical Change in Climate-Economy Models: A Technical Overview to the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 17-56.
    9. Chernick, Howard & Reschovsky, Andrew, 1997. "Who Pays the Gasoline Tax?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(2), pages 233-59, June.
    10. Kunert, Uwe & Kuhfeld, Hartmut, 2007. "The diverse structures of passenger car taxation in Europe and the EU Commissions proposal for reform," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 306-316, July.
    11. Barker, Terry & Ekins, Paul & Foxon, Tim, 2007. "The macro-economic rebound effect and the UK economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4935-4946, October.
    12. Tertoolen, Gerard & van Kreveld, Dik & Verstraten, Ben, 1998. "Psychological resistance against attempts to reduce private car use," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 171-181, April.
    13. Geels, Frank W., 2004. "From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6-7), pages 897-920, September.
    14. Wilson, Charlie, 2012. "Up-scaling, formative phases, and learning in the historical diffusion of energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 81-94.
    15. Chernick, Howard & Reschovsky, Andrew, 1997. "Who Pays the Gasoline Tax?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 50(2), pages 233-259, June.
    16. Brand, Christian & Anable, Jillian & Tran, Martino, 2013. "Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 132-148.
    17. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    18. Cuenot, François, 2009. "CO2 emissions from new cars and vehicle weight in Europe; How the EU regulation could have been avoided and how to reach it?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3832-3842, October.
    19. Weiss, Martin & Patel, Martin K. & Junginger, Martin & Perujo, Adolfo & Bonnel, Pierre & van Grootveld, Geert, 2012. "On the electrification of road transport - Learning rates and price forecasts for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-393.
    20. Kloess, Maximilian & Müller, Andreas, 2011. "Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria--A model based analysis 2010-2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5045-5062, September.
    21. Achtnicht, Martin & Bühler, Georg & Hermeling, Claudia, 2008. "Impact of Service Station Networks on Purchase Decisions of Alternative-fuel Vehicles," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-088, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    22. Baltas, N.C. & Xepapadeas, A., 1999. "Accelerating Vehicle Replacement and Environmental Protection: the Case of Passenger Cars in Greece," Athens University of Economics and Business 108, Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies.
    23. Levinthal, Daniel A, 1998. "The Slow Pace of Rapid Technological Change: Gradualism and Punctuation in Technological Change," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 7(2), pages 217-247, June.
    24. Kamalini Ramdas & Robert E. Spekman, 2000. "Chain or Shackles: Understanding What Drives Supply-Chain Performance," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 3-21, August.
    25. Herbert A. Simon, 1991. "Bounded Rationality and Organizational Learning," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 125-134, February.
    26. Albert Faber & Koen Frenken, 2008. "Models in evolutionary economics and environmental policy: Towards an evolutionary environmental economics," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-15, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Apr 2008.
    27. Baltas, N.C. & Xepapadeas, A., 1999. "Accelerating Vehicle Replacement and Environmental Protection: the Case of Passenger Cars in Greece," Athens University of Economics and Business 108, Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies.
    28. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-440, June.
    29. Rajan, Sudhir Chella, 2006. "Climate change dilemma: technology, social change or both?: An examination of long-term transport policy choices in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 664-679, April.
    30. David L. Greene, 2010. "Why the New Market for New Passenger Cars Generally Undervalues Fuel Economy," OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers 2010/6, OECD Publishing.
    31. Kayser, Hilke A., 2000. "Gasoline demand and car choice: estimating gasoline demand using household information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 331-348, June.
    32. Ernst, Christian-Simon & Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard & Lunz, Benedikt & Sauer, Dirk Uwe & Eckstein, Lutz, 2010. "Battery Sizing for Serial Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: A Model-Based Economic Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 14/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Jun 2011.
    33. Pistorius, C. W. I. & Utterback, J. M., 1997. "Multi-mode interaction among technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 67-84, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asensio, Javier & Matas, Anna & Raymond, Jose-Luis, 2003. "Petrol expenditure and redistributive effects of its taxation in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 49-69, January.
    2. Geels, Frank W. & Kemp, René, 2007. "Dynamics in socio-technical systems: Typology of change processes and contrasting case studies," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 441-455.
    3. Nathalie Lazaric & Kevin Maréchal, 2010. "Overcoming inertia: insights from evolutionary economics into improved energy and climate policy," Post-Print hal-00452205, HAL.
    4. Silvia Tiezzi & Stefano F. Verde, 2017. "The signaling effect of gasoline taxes and its distributional implications," RSCAS Working Papers 2017/06, European University Institute.
    5. Ian W. H. Parry & Kenneth A. Small, 2005. "Does Britain or the United States Have the Right Gasoline Tax?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1276-1289, September.
    6. Bonilla, David & Schmitz, Klaus E. & Akisawa, Atsushi, 2012. "Demand for mini cars and large cars; decay effects, and gasoline demand in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 217-227.
    7. Michael Grubb & Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas & Rutger-Jan Lange & Ida Sognnaes, 2018. "Systems Innovation, Inertia and Pliability: A mathematical exploration with implications for climate change abatement," Working Papers EPRG 1808, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    8. Geels, Frank W., 2010. "Ontologies, socio-technical transitions (to sustainability), and the multi-level perspective," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 495-510, May.
    9. Raven, Rob, 2007. "Co-evolution of waste and electricity regimes: Multi-regime dynamics in the Netherlands (1969-2003)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2197-2208, April.
    10. Papachristos, George, 2017. "Diversity in technology competition: The link between platforms and sociotechnical transitions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 291-306.
    11. Marechal, Kevin, 2007. "The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5181-5194, October.
    12. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jimy Ferrer Carbonell & José Eduardo Alatorre & Orlando Reyes, 2015. "Metaanálisis de las elasticidades ingreso y precio de la demanda de energía: algunas implicaciones de politica pública para América Latina," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 38(75), pages 9-40.
    13. Balaguer, Jacint & Pernías, José C. & Ripollés, Jordi, 2023. "Is vehicle scrapping affected by low-emission zones? The case of Madrid," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    14. Albrecht, Maxwell & Brown, Anne & Lederman, Jaimee & Taylor, Brian D. & Wachs, Martin, 2017. "The Equity Challenges and Outcomes of California County Transportation Sales Tax," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt39q2758w, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    15. Silvia Tiezzi & Stefano F. Verde, 2019. "The signaling effect of gasoline taxes and its distributional implications," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(2), pages 145-169, June.
    16. Kok, Robert, 2015. "Six years of CO2-based tax incentives for new passenger cars in The Netherlands: Impacts on purchasing behavior trends and CO2 effectiveness," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 137-153.
    17. Auke Hoekstra & Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong, 2017. "Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, December.
    18. Angela Köppl & Claudia Kettner & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Stefan Schleicher & Hans Schnitzer & Michaela Titz & Andrea Damm & Karl W. Steininger & Brigitte Wolkinger & Reinhold Lang & Gernot Wallner , 2011. "EnergyTransition 2012\2020\2050. Strategies for the Transition to Low Energy and Low Emission Structures," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41198, July.
    19. Coenen , Lars & Moodysson , Jerker & Martin , Hanna, 2013. "Renewal of mature industry in an old industrial region: regional innovation policy and the co-evolution of institutions and technology," Papers in Innovation Studies 2013/7, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    20. Javier Asensio & Anna Matas & José Luis Raymond, 2001. "Petrol consumption and redistributive effects of its taxation in Spain," Working Papers wp0109, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport; Technological change; Emissions; Fuel use;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ccc:wpaper:005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aleix Altimiras-Martin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cccamuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.