IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbi/wpaper/06-rt-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of SME Loan Default: The Importance of Borrower-Level Heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • McCann, Fergal

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McIndoe-Calder, Tara

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

Using unique borrower-level balance sheet information for a cross-section of 6,000 Irish SME loans, this paper tests the determinants of default at the micro level. Typical financial ratios, such as the ratio of the loan to total assets, the current ratio, leverage ratio, liquidity ratio and profitability ratio, are found to be significant predictors of default. Further, the length of time the borrowing firm’s owner has been with the firm mitigates the likelihood of default. Conditional on the above, significant sector-level effects remain. The paper moves beyond average effects of the above-mentioned variables by repeating the analysis across seven sectors of economic activity, and across the quintiles of firm size, exposure and credit quality. The share of defaults is shown to fall as firms get larger, and to rise as loans get larger relative to assets. The results suggest that different warning signals can be identified, particularly for borrowers of different sizes and with small versus large loans. These results contribute to the literature on “fundamentals-based” modelling of corporate default risk, and represent one of very few sets of results on the determinants of default in SME lending in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • McCann, Fergal & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "Determinants of SME Loan Default: The Importance of Borrower-Level Heterogeneity," Research Technical Papers 06/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:06/rt/12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/research-technical-papers/research-technical-paper-06rt12.pdf?sfvrsn=8
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michel Dietsch, 2004. "Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures: a comparative analysis of probabilities of default and assets correlations in French and German SMEs," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14164, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Kelly, Robert & O’Malley, Terence, 2016. "The good, the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-9.
    3. Casey, C & Bartczak, N, 1985. "Using Operating Cash Flow Data To Predict Financial Distress - Some Extensions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 384-401.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hainz, Christa, 2010. "Default rates in the loan market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 133-147, June.
    5. Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2006/149, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Abdul Aziz & David C. Emanuel & Gerald H. Lawson, 1988. "Bankruptcy Prediction ‐ An Investigation Of Cash Flow Based Models[1]," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 419-437, September.
    9. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    10. Edward I. Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2013. "MODELING CREDIT RISK FOR SMEs: EVIDENCE FROM THE US MARKET," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Oliviero Roggi & Edward I Altman (ed.), Managing and Measuring Risk Emerging Global Standards and Regulations After the Financial Crisis, chapter 9, pages 251-279, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    12. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2004. "Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures? A comparative analysis of default probabilities and asset correlations in French and German SMEs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 773-788, April.
    13. Westgaard, Sjur & van der Wijst, Nico, 2001. "Default probabilities in a corporate bank portfolio: A logistic model approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 338-349, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Donnery, Sharon & Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Greaney, Darren & McCann, Fergal & O'Keeffe, Micheal, 2018. "Resolving Non-Performing Loans in Ireland: 2010-2018," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 54-70, April.
    2. Martina Lawless & Fergal McCann, 2013. "Determinants of Default: Evidence from a Sector-level Panel of Irish SME Loans," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(4), pages 473-488.
    3. Lawless, Martina & O'Toole, Conor & Lambert, Derek, 2014. "Financing SMEs in Recovery: Evidence for Irish Policy Options," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT276, June.
    4. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Alessio D’Ignazio & Marco Gallo & Giacinto Micucci, 2015. "The Role of Leverage in Firm Solvency: Evidence From Bank Loans," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(2), pages 253-286, July.
    5. Ishtiaq Ahmad & Muhammad Fahid Muqaddas, 2017. "Determinants Of Dividend Payout Policy: An Empirical Study Of Banking Sector Of Pakistan," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 10(4-5), April.
    6. Abu, Benjamin Musah & Domanban, Paul Bata & Haruna, Issahaku, 2017. "Microcredit Loan Repayment Default among Small Scale Enterprises: A Double Hurdle Approach," MPRA Paper 101576, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Filipe, Sara Ferreira & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-135.
    2. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2016. "Financial Distress, Employees’ Welfare and Entrepreneurship Among SMEs," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 1135-1153, December.
    3. Jairaj Gupta & Nicholas Wilson & Andros Gregoriou & Jerome Healy, 2014. "The value of operating cash flow in modelling credit risk for SMEs," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 649-660, May.
    4. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    5. Dimitra Michala & Theoharry Grammatikos & Sara Ferreira Filipe, 2013. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," DEM Discussion Paper Series 13-2, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    6. Ciampi, Francesco, 2015. "Corporate governance characteristics and default prediction modeling for small enterprises. An empirical analysis of Italian firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1012-1025.
    7. Yu Zhao & Huaming Du & Qing Li & Fuzhen Zhuang & Ji Liu & Gang Kou, 2022. "A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis from Big Data Perspective," Papers 2211.14997, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    8. Şaban Çelik, 2013. "Micro Credit Risk Metrics: A Comprehensive Review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 233-272, October.
    9. El Kalak, Izidin & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs: An empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 135-145.
    10. Mohammad S. Uddin & Guotai Chi & Mazin A. M. Al Janabi & Tabassum Habib, 2022. "Leveraging random forest in micro‐enterprises credit risk modelling for accuracy and interpretability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3713-3729, July.
    11. K.K. Jain & P.K. Gupta & Sanjiv Mittal, 2011. "Logistic Predictive Model for SMEs Financing in India," Vision, , vol. 15(4), pages 331-346, December.
    12. Ana Paula Matias Gama & Helena Susana Amaral Geraldes, 2012. "Credit risk assessment and the impact of the New Basel Capital Accord on small and medium‐sized enterprises," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(8), pages 727-749, July.
    13. Dimitra Michala & Theoharry Grammatikos & Sara Ferreira Filipe, 2013. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-2, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    14. Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2013. "Modelling Credit Risk for Innovative SMEs: the Role of Innovation Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 111-129, August.
    15. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    16. Clara Cardone-Riportella & Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Anahí Briozzo, 2013. "Analyzing the role of mutual guarantee societies on bank capital requirements for small and medium-sized enterprises," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 142-159, June.
    17. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Alessio D’Ignazio & Marco Gallo & Giacinto Micucci, 2015. "The Role of Leverage in Firm Solvency: Evidence From Bank Loans," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(2), pages 253-286, July.
    18. Zhou Lu & Zhuyao Zhuo, 2021. "Modelling of Chinese corporate bond default – A machine learning approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(5), pages 6147-6191, December.
    19. Antonio Blanco-Oliver & Ana Irimia-Dieguez & María Oliver-Alfonso & Nicholas Wilson, 2015. "Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 144-166, April.
    20. Raffaella Calabrese & Silvia Angela Osmetti, 2011. "Generalized Extreme Value Regression for Binary Rare Events Data: an Application to Credit Defaults," Working Papers 201120, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:06/rt/12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fiona Farrelly (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbigvie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.