Natural Gas Import Dynamics and Russia's Role in the Security of Germany's Supply Strategy
The aim of this paper is to explain the natural gas demand dynamics of Germany and to determine the factors affecting the import of natural gas from Russia. In the existing literature, there are several studies which investigate the demand structure of single sectors (like industry or households), but there is a lack of analysis that tries to explain import quantities as a whole. On the basis of a theoretical discussion, the components of natural gas import quantities have been tested through different time series analysis. We found that the European natural gas and oil prices are co integrated with a time lag of 7 months. We interpret this result as revealing that natural gas is a viable substitute for oil. The time series estimation results support our hypothesis and demonstrate a positive relationship between oil price and natural gas demand. Furthermore, we found that the German industry production level is also an important determinant for natural gas import. In the next step, we used a technological variable, energy intensity change over time, to explain the change in natural gas import. Then, a new variable was implemented within the analysis: The purpose of natural gas import which is a hybrid variable and indicates which purpose dominates, i.e. either heating or electricity production. After a positively resulted significance test, we made a simple forecast analysis using an AR-Process to show that the positive trend of natural gas import will continue, if all of the significant variables have the same development in the future. It is important to show this trend because this kind of development raises the increases the issue of dependence of both countries from each other. Against this background alternatives will be discussed as to how Germany could improve security of its natural gas supplies.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Siliverstovs, Boriss & L'Hegaret, Guillaume & Neumann, Anne & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2005.
"International market integration for natural gas? A cointegration analysis of prices in Europe, North America and Japan,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 603-615, July.
- Guillaume L¿Hégaret & Boriss Siliverstovs & Anne Neumann & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2003. "International Market Integration for Natural Gas?: A Cointegration Analysis of Prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 393, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Guillaume L'Hegaret & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2004. "International Market Integration for Natural Gas? A Cointegration Analysis of Prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Working Papers 0402, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frank Hoffmann)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.