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Dynamics in Gun Ownership and Crime - Evidence from the Aftermath of Sandy Hook

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  • Christoph Koenig
  • David Schindler

Abstract

Gun rights activists in the United States frequently argue that the right to bear arms, as guaranteed by the Second Amendment, can help deter crime. Advocates of gun control usually respond that firearm prevalence contributes positively to violent crime rates. In this paper, we provide quasi-experimental evidence that a positive and unexpected gun demand shock led to an increase in murder rates after the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School and the resulting gun control debate in December 2012. In states where purchases were delayed due to mandatory waiting periods and bureaucratic hurdles in issuing a gun permit, firearm sales exhibited weaker increases than in states without any such delays. We show that this finding is hard to reconcile with standard economic theory, but is in line with findings from behavioral economics. States that saw more gun sales then experienced significantly higher murder rates in the months following the demand shock, as murders increased by 6-15% over the course of a year.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Koenig & David Schindler, 2018. "Dynamics in Gun Ownership and Crime - Evidence from the Aftermath of Sandy Hook," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 18/694, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    • Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:18/694
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Guns; crime; deterrence; demand shock; murder.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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