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The Curious Incident of the Bidder in the Nighttime

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  • Kathryn Graddy
  • Jianping Mei
  • Michael Moses

Abstract

This paper shows that buyers pay a substantial premium during evening auctions at major auction houses. For Post-War paintings, evening estimate premiums exceed 70%, and buyers pay over 5% above these estimates. While higher estimates reduce the likelihood of sale, inclusion inan evening auction increases it. We also examine the interaction of evening sales and lot ordering, finding that for high-valued paintings, sellers may fare better earlier in a day auction than later in an evening sale. These results highlight how auction timing and pricing strategies affect both sale probabilities and final prices in the art market.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn Graddy & Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2025. "The Curious Incident of the Bidder in the Nighttime," Working Papers 138, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:138
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    File URL: http://www.brandeis.edu/economics/RePEc/brd/doc/brandeis_wp138.pdf
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