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Turn-of-Month Evaluations of Liquid Profits and Stock Returns: A Common Explanation for the Monthly and January Effects

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  • Ogden, Joseph P

Abstract

This paper presents and tests a hypothesis that the standardization of payments in the United States at the turn of each calendar month generally induces a surge in stock returns at the turn of each calendar month. The hypothesis also asserts that returns generally will be greater following the month of December and will vary inversely with the stringency of monetary policy. Empirical results using stock index returns for 1969-86 support the hypothesis. This analysis provides an explanation for the previously documented monthly effect in stock returns and a partial explanation for the January effect. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Ogden, Joseph P, 1990. " Turn-of-Month Evaluations of Liquid Profits and Stock Returns: A Common Explanation for the Monthly and January Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1259-1272, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:45:y:1990:i:4:p:1259-72
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    Cited by:

    1. Maher, Daniela & Parikh, Anokhi, 2013. "The turn of the month effect in India: A case of large institutional trading pattern as a source of higher liquidity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 57-69.
    2. Kumar, Satish, 2016. "Revisiting calendar anomalies: Three decades of multicurrency evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 16-32.
    3. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2014. "New evidence on turn-of-the-month effects," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-108.
    4. Roll, Richard & Schwartz, Eduardo & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2014. "Trading activity in the equity market and its contingent claims: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 13-35.
    5. Kayacetin, Volkan & Lekpek, Senad, 2016. "Turn-of-the-month effect: New evidence from an emerging stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 142-157.
    6. Loderer, Claudio & Jacobs, Andreas, 1995. "The Nestle crash," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 315-339, March.
    7. Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2013. "Returns and option activity over the option-expiration week for S&P 100 stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4226-4240.
    8. Mine AKSOY & Veysel ULUSOY, 2015. "Analysis Of Relative Return Behaviour Of Borsa Istanbul Reit And Borsa Istanbul 100 Index," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 107-128, March.
    9. repec:jfr:ijfr11:v:8:y:2017:i:3:p:105-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Filipovski, Vladimir & Tevdovski, Dragan, 2017. "Stock market efficiency in South Eastern Europe: testing return predictability and presence of calendar effects," MPRA Paper 76818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. William G. Hardin III & Kartono Liano & Gow-cheng Huang, 2005. "Real Estate Investment Trusts and Calendar Anomalies: Revisited," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 8(1), pages 83-94.
    12. Mehmet Akbulut & Su Han Chan & Mariya Letdin, 2015. "Calendar Anomalies: Do REITs Behave Like Stocks?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 177-215.
    13. Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert S. & Atanasova, Christina V., 2015. "The benefits of combining seasonal anomalies and technical trading rules," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 36-44.
    14. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:292-302 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Nekat, Kai & Nippel, Peter, 2007. "The impact of a firm's payout policy on stock prices and shareholders' wealth in an inefficient market," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 619, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    16. Edwin D. Maberly & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2000. "Closing the question on the continuation of turn-of-the-month effects: evidence from the S&P 500 Index futures contract," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    17. repec:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:95-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Camilleri, Silvio John, 2008. "Month-Related Seasonality of Stock Price Volatility: Evidence from the Malta Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 62493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:spr:busres:v:11:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s40685-017-0060-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla, 2015. "An Investigation of the Month-of-The-Year Effect for the Sudanese Stock Market," Working Papers 924, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2015.
    21. Danny Yeung, 2012. "The Impact of Institutional Ownership: A Study of the Australian Equity Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 11, November.

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